تحولات اخير جهان عرب، موازنه قوا و گروه بندي هاي منطقه اي جديد در خاورميانه

The Recent Upheavals in the Arab World, Regional Balance of Power and New Grouping in the Middle East

پايان جنگ سرد و وقوع حوادثي نظيرواقعه 11 سپتامبر 2001 و خيزش‌‌هاي اخير جهان عرب موجب تشديد رقابت ميان قدرتهاي منطقه​اي خاورميانه نظير ايران، عربستان سعودي و تركيه به​عنوان بازيگران مستقل در چهارچوب استراتژي اتحاد و ائتلاف با قدرتهاي منطقه​اي گرديده است. اين پژوهش به​دنبال بررسي تاثير خيزش‌‌هاي اخير جهان عرب بر موازنه قوا ميان قدرتهاي منطقه​اي خاورميانه با استفاده از مفاهيم و مفروضات نظريه ‌‌‌واقع‌گرايي نوكلاسيك (تهاجمي و تدافعي) و روش توصيفي تحليلي و همچنين روش تحليل محتوا مي‌باشد. يافته‌‌هاي اين پژوهش نشان مي​دهد كه خيزش‌‌هاي اخير جهان عرب موجب تشديد رقابت ميان قدرتهاي منطقه​اي خاورميانه در شكل فرقه​گرايي يا تقابل جريانات شيعه - سني گرديده است. در يك​سو محور شيعي ايران، عراق، سوريه و حزب​الله لبنان با پوشش حمايتي روسيه و در سوي ديگر محور سني عربستان سعودي، امارات، قطر و تركيه با پوشش حمايتي آمريكا قرار دارند. البته با بركناري محمد مرسي از قدرت و به حاشيه رانده شدن جريان اخوان​المسلمين در مصر، شاهد شكاف در محور سني و جدا شدن تركيه و قطر از اين محور و نزديك شدن مواضع تركيه به ايران و روسيه مي​باشيم. توافقات ميان ايران، روسيه و تركيه در اجلاس آستانه و تهران را مي‌توان در اين راستا تحليل نمود.

Considering this Fact that 11 September, 2001 incident had enhanced Iran regional status in the Middle East, and other regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey strived to limit Iran Regional power. Arab world Upheavals provided an opportunity for them to decrease in Iran regional power in the context of Sectarianism based on balance of power. This balance of power has been become more complicated after the involvement of Russia Federation and United States. Methodology Using descriptive–analytic and modeling method, we considered the impact of recent Arab World Upheavals on regional balance of power in the Middle East region. Findings The Origin of Arab World Upheavals had been the authoritarian regimes in middle east region Following the recent Arab World Upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt, they lost the arising opportunity due to the failure in passing nation–state process in the past years; The recent Arab World Upheavals had intensified regional Balance of power between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East region; Turkey and Qatar enhanced their interactions with Russia and Iran as a result of their gap with Saudi Arabia; The United States had different foreign policy toward Middle East balance of power during Obama and Trump presidency; Russia had active role in Syria and Iraq following the recent Arab World Upheavals. Discussion After the 11 September 2001 incident Saudi Arabia and Turkey was not able to limit Iran enhanced regional power as a result of US Invasion to Iraq and creating new Shiite regime. The recent Arab World Upheavals provide an opportunity for regional Sunni power such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey to control the Iran increased regional power through the sectarianism based on balance of power supported by the US new Republican Government. But they could not realized their objectives and contain Iran arising power in Middle East. As far, Turkey and Qatar as the follower of moderate Islam increased in their interactions with Russia and Iran. Conclusion The regional balance of power among Middle East powers following the recent Arab World Upheavals will not have a winner. It seems, it should be managed by regional or infra regional powers through their increased interactions in the region.