مؤلفه هاي ژئوپليتيكي سياست خارجي روسيه

Geopolitical Components of the Russian Foreign Policy

روابط خارجي روسيه پس از يك دوره بي ثباتي و درگيري با مسائل و دشواري هاي گوناگون در دهه 1990، از سال 2000 و با روي كار آمدن ولاديمير پوتين به يك وضعيت به نسبت متعادلي رسيد. ارزيابي بسياري از تحليل گران از سياست خارجي روسيه اين است كه مسكو با استفاده از مزيت هاي ژئوپليتيكي خود به دنبال احياي جايگاه يك قدرت بزرگ است. در اين مقاله با شاخص بندي سياست خارجي روسيه، نويسندگان توضيح مي دهند چرا بدون توسل به نظريه هاي كلانتر ژئوپليتيك و روابط بين الملل، با استفاده از نظريه واقع گرايي نوكلاسيك مي توان به تجزيه و تحليل سياست خارجي روسيه با توجه به به تأثير مؤلفه هاي ژئوپليتيكي پرداخت. مفروض نويسندگان اين است كه از آغاز هزاره سوم نوعي تداوم و پيوستگي در سياست خارجي روسيه وجود داشته كه به شناخت مؤلفه ها و متغيرهاي دخيل در آن و تاحدي پيش بيني سياست خارجي روسيه در آينده نزديك كمك كرده است. بر اساس يافته هاي پژوهش آنان، نظريه واقع گرايي و به طور ويژه واقع گرايي نوكلاسيك، براي تحليل سياست خارجي روسيه مناسب به نظر مي رسد. واقع گرايي نوكلاسيك نه تنها از قدرت بيشتري براي وزن دادن به مؤلفه هاي مؤثر بر سياست خارجي روسيه، بلكه از قدرت بيشتر براي تبيين انگيزه ها، اهداف، فرآيند تصميم‌گيري و رفتارهاي آن برخوردار است. در واقع گرايي نوكلاسيك به دولت تنها يك بازيگر منفعل نيست. واقع گراهاي نوكلاسيك به جاي اين فرضيه كه دولت ها در جستجوي امنيت هستند، اين فرض را در نظر مي گيرند كه دولت ها به دليل بي اطميناني ناشي از آنارشي بين المللي، به دنبال كنترل و شكل دادن به محيط بين‌المللي هستند. بر اين اساس دولت ها بدون در نظر گرفتن بسياري از روش‌ها كه ممكن است منافع آنها را تعريف كند، در پي افزايش نفوذ و گسترش توان عملياتي خود هستند.

Extended Abstract Introduction After a period of instability and conflict with various problems in the 1990s, Russian foreign relations have reached a relatively balanced situation since 2000. With the arrival of Vladimir Putin, many analysts estimate Russian foreign policy is that Moscow seeks to revive itself as a major power by using its geopolitical advantages. With the indexation of Russian foreign policy, the present study attempts to explain why analysis of Russian foreign policy can be considered in terms of the components of geopolitics using the framework of neoclassical realism, without resorting to more macroeconomic views on geopolitics and international relations. Neoclassical realism has more power not only to weigh the components that affect Russian foreign policy, but also to explain the motives, goals, decision-making processes and foreign policy behaviors. Methodology The choice of a specific theoretical framework in this research suggests that this research has been done by collecting library resources as a data analysis technique as well as using conceptual elements and the authors’ theoretical and experimental backgrounds. Result and discussion The most important estimates of this research are as follows: 1) The theory of neoclassical realism, which takes into account the number and ratio of variables affecting the state's foreign policy and behavior more carefully, is a more appropriate theoretical model for analyzing Russian foreign policy. 2) Russian foreign policy should be analyzed both within the framework of its historical and traditional policy during the Soviet era, and also in the framework of a new foreign policy inspired by historical experiences and adapted to the new conditions of Russia and the international system of implementation. 3) Moscow's experiences of the international system after the collapse of the Soviet unio‎n has led to the fact that, although all the Russian political and security documents emphasize the priority of the former Soviet unio‎n (the former geographical zone of the Soviet unio‎n), but since 2011, and in particular since 2015, Russia has expanded its field of engagement with the United States into the Middle East and more issues. 4) Russian foreign policy, especially in the last decade, with Vladimir Putin's leadership; contains security perspectives on unilateral US actions in the world arena and the enlargement of NATO to the East; orientation toward the East; and strategic competition and interaction with China. Political-security-economic domination on the “Near Abroad”, which fully reflects geopolitical components on all three axes. The reason for the significance of these components is also influenced by various components such as the restructuring and the degradation of Russian position after the collapse of the Soviet unio‎n, the systematic results, internal factors in Russia such as the perception of the leaders about a systematic stimulus, socio-political domains such as relations between the society and government, strategic culture, internal institutions, foreign policy responses and their international outcomes. Conclusion While Russian leaders have a security perception of structural changes and their systematic results, geopolitics not only has its own senses, that is, it depends on the territorial features and geographical location, but also is important in the outcome of the systemic developments and its implications in Russian foreign policy. From of Russian leaders’ point of view, the security interests of this country with geopolitical priorities should be secured using political-economic and even military means. At the same time, it looks at new international crises as opportunities and threats. The total of such factors makes the foreign policy approach a set of interactive and contradictory strategies, and the spread of the areas of these interactions and contradictions to various regions is expanding and reinforces the notion that geopolitical factors are very important in Russian foreign policy. The result of this paper is that new classical realism is the appropriate theory to analyze Russian foreign policy.