كليدواژه :
ژئوپليتيك , ائتلاف نظامي , كشورهاي عربي , جنوب غرب آسيا , خليج فارس
چكيده فارسي :
منطقه ژئوپليتيكي جنوب غرب آسيا كه به واسطه نقش‌آفريني قدرت‌هاي فرامنطقه اي همواره درگير تحولات فراواني بوده است، در ماه‌هاي اخير نيز شاهد تلاش‌هايي از سوي ايالات‌متحده آمريكا و كشورهاي عربي هم پيمانانش در حاشيه خليج فارس براي شكل‌دهي به يك ائتلاف نظامي عربي و ضد ايراني بود.با توجه به افزايش تنش و درگيري ميان ايران و عربستان سعودي، حمايت همه جانبه آمريكا از اين كشور در تقابل با ايران و نيز افزايش تلاش‌هابراي شكل‌دهي به اين ائتلاف،پژوهش حاضر بر آن شد تا با بهره‌گيري از تكنيك تحليل اثرات متقاطع و استفاده از نظر كارشناسان به بررسي كيفيت و نقش عوامل ژئوپليتيكي مؤثر بر تمايل آمريكا در شكل‌گيري اين ائتلاف بپردازد و بر اساس نظريه‌هاي نو واقع‌گرايي و الگوهاي مختلف روابط ژئوپليتيكي، نقش اين قدرت را در اين مسير ارزيابي كند.
در اين پژوهش كه با استفاده از نرم‌افزار ميك مك و مدل دلفي نسبت به تحليل يافته‌ها اقدام شد. نتايج به دست آمده نشان داد نقش آفريني‌هاي آمريكا احتمال شكل‌گيري يك ائتلاف نظامي عربي و ضد ايراني را در خليج فارس افزايش داده است و اين وضعيت در صورت استمرار امنيت ايران را در ابعاد مختلف به‌ويژه ابعاد اقتصادي و نظامي دچار مشكل خواهد كرد.
چكيده لاتين :
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Although the past efforts of the states of the Southwest Asia for a comprehensive coalition against common threats failed to reach the goal, in May 2017, the Arabian states near Persian Gulf by the supports of the new president of the U.S resumed their endeavors to form an Arabian military coalition. The Americans stated that they follow these actions for development of democracy in the region. However, based on hegemony theory initially coined by Joseph Nye, global powers encourage some states to form coalition in order to seek their own interests by predomination over the target countries. Therefore, this is the possible coalition that may have many geopolitical aspects and also a plenty of political and security consequences for Iran and the geopolitical region of South East Asia. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate geopolitical factors of American interests in forming an Arabian military coalition in Persian Gulf and its effects on economic and military security of Islamic Republic of Iran.
Methodology
This research is applied and cross impact analysis as a method in future research is used. Using the cross impact analysis, we have taken the opinions of experts about the impacts of the components on each other. The opinions of the experts have been ranged from 0 to 3 for the components. Thus, the integrated position of each component is determined for the problem. The cross impact technique has helped us to discriminate impressive, effective, determinative, independent goal, dual, risk, and secondary variables from each other. This is for more precise analysis of the problem.
Results and discussion
The US during many decades continuously endeavored to be present in the Southwest Asia, particularly Persian Gulf. The state is looking for many economic, social, and even military interests in the region. Thus, the state spent huge costs for the presence in the region. Iran was able to increase its influence and hegemony on some countries of the region and make the states to follow similar policies in the region. Iran was also able to enforce resistance in the region. Thus, the US and its allies are afraid of the influence of Iran.
They try to confederate with Arabian states of Persian Gulf and some other countries to form the Arabian military coalition to guarantee their interests in the region and enforce Zionism as well as to prevent development of geopolitical influence of Iran in the region. Therefore, the present research has attempted to assess the reasons of the interests of US for shaping the coalition. Applying the approach of hegemony theory, we have analyzed the role the US played in southwest Asia to shape an Arabian military coalition. Based on the theory, this is the global power that encourages some states to form military coalition, as this is the case for the Arabian states around the Persian Gulf. Such confederation and intervention can result in negative consequences for all the member states and also the security of the region.
Conclusion
According to the results of this research, increased power and geopolitical influence of Islamic Republic of Iran in the Southwest Asian region is one of the main concerns of US. Thus, the state makes any attempts to present the condition and weaken Iran. Another concern of the US in the region is decreased military power of Zionism. This made the US to keep its presence in the region and form a coalition in the framework of hegemony theory in order to provide its interests at the highest level. Addition to these two causes of American actions in the region, development of Islam religion and increase in global tendency towards the religion also concerned the state. The increased presence of American rivals including China and Russia in the region and their extensive economic and military activities in the region is considered as a threat by the USA. These issues have motivated the Americans to seek to form mandatory and stable coalitions in the region.
This study has indicated that the main goals of the US in the region are increase in economic relations with the states of Southwest Asia, dominance over the geographical position of the region, political dominance over the heads of the Southwest Asian states, dominance over oil and other economic resources of the region, predomination on military bases in the Persian Gulf region, and making changes in life styles of people of the region. These goals are important for the country to provide long term interests of the global power in the region. Other components such as development of democracy in the region are not the goals of the US. In other words, development of democracy in the Southwest Asia which was stated by America as its goal in the region is not, in fact, the main goal of the state for formation of the coalition.
Based on the findings, economic and military security of Iran is threatened by formation of the coalition. Thus, it is necessary for the diplomacy of Iran to make further efforts to mitigate the Iran-phobia in the region. In other words, as the formation of the Arabian military coalition can endanger the security and economic conditions of Iran, the government of Iran has to prevent the formation of the coalition and weaken its development. So, Iranian government has to make the world aware of its peaceful purposes and reduce the Irano-phobia among the countries of the region. Additionally, Iran has to make the neighboring states aware of the great damages this coalition may have for all the states of the region and the highest benefits of that for the Americans.
