اثر نامتقارن شوك‌هاي نابرابري جنسيتي نيروي كار بر رشد اقتصادي ايران

Asymmetric Effect of Shocks of Labor Force Gender Inequality on Iran's Economic Growth

هدف اصلي اين پژوهش، بررسي اثر نامتقارن شوك‌هاي نابرابري جنسيتي نيروي كار بر رشد اقتصادي ايران است. در اين راستا از روش ARDL غيرخطي براي بازه زماني 1345 تا 1395 استفاده شده است. نتايج حاصل از تخمين نشان داد كه يك شوك مثبت يا منفي در نابرابري جنسيتي، اثرات نامتقارني بر رشد اقتصادي به جا مي‌گذارد. علاوه براين، اثرات كوتاه‌مدت يك شوك نابرابري جنسيتي، نيز متفاوت از اثرات بلندمدت آن است. در بلندمدت، شوك مثبت سهم اشتغال زنان، اثر منفي و معني‌دار؛ و شوك منفي سهم اشتغال زنان، اثر مثبت بر رشد اقتصادي دارد؛ در كوتاه‌مدت نيز شوك مثبت سهم اشتغال زنان اثر مثبت و معني‌داري بر رشد اقتصادي دارد، در مقابل شوك منفي سهم اشتغال زنان با يك دوره تأخير، اثر منفي بر رشد اقتصادي داشته است.

The main objective of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effects of labor force gender inequality shocks on Iran's economic growth. In this regard, the nonlinear ARDL method has been used for the period 1345 to 1395. The results of the estimation showed that a positive or negative shock in gender inequality would have asymmetric effects on economic growh. The results also showed that the short-term effects of gender inequality shock are different from its long-term effects. The results showed that, the positive shock of the female employment share, in the long run, had a negative and significant effect; and the negative shock of women's employment share had a positive effect on economic growth; but in the short run, the results showed that the positive shock of women's employment has a significant positive effect on economic growth. In contrast to the negative shock, the share of women's employment with a lag period has a negative effect on economic growth, suggesting that reducing the share of men's employment and moving towards gender equality in employment will result economic growth in short-term. The results showed that, the positive shock of the female employment share, in the long run, had a negative and significant effect; and the negative shock of women's employment share had a positive effect on economic growth; but in the short run, the results showed that the positive shock of women's employment has a significant positive effect on economic growth. In contrast to the negative shock, the share of women's employment with a lag period has a negative effect on economic growth, suggesting that reducing the share of men's employment and moving towards gender equality in employment will result economic growth in short-term.