تأثير تاب‌آوري و آسيب‌پذيري اقتصادي بر رشد اقتصادي كشورهاي نفتي

The effect of economic resilience and vulnerability on economic growth of oil countries

تحت تأثير قرار گرفتن اقتصاد كشورها از شوك‌هاي اقتصادي دنياي خارج منشأ ظهور بحث آسيب‌پذيري و تاب‌آوري اقتصادي در ادبيات اقتصادي شد. سوالي كه در اينجا به ذهن مي‌رسد اين است آيا براي كشورهاي نفتي كه اغلب در برابر شوك‌هاي نفتي قرار مي‌گيرند، درجه آسيب‌پذيري و تاب‌آوري متفاوت مي‌تواند اختلاف درآمد سرانه كشورها را توضيح دهد. مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از روش GMM براي دوره زماني 2014-2005 و براي 18 كشور نفتي اثر تاب‌آوري اقتصادي و آسيب‌پذيري اقتصادي روي درآمد سرانه كشورها را بررسي كرده است. نتايج مطالعه نشان داد كه تاب‌آوري اثر مثبت و آسيب‌پذيري اثري منفي بر درآمد سرانه كشورها دارد. اين بدان معنا است كه كشورهايي كه از تاب‌آوري بالاتر و آسيب‌پذيري كم‌تر برخوردار هستند، توانسته‌اند درآمد سرانه‌هاي بالاتري را تجربه كنند.

Affecting economy of countries due to outside oil, monetary and fiscal shocks was considered as origin of emerging the issue of economic vulnerability and resilience in the economic literature. Economic resilience and vulnerability can be considered as an environment for activities of economic factors and a determinant of economic growth. Here, the raised question is that whether the degree of different vulnerability and resilience can explain difference in per capita income in oil producer countries that are always exposed in oil shocks. According to this issue, the present research has studied the effects of economic resiliency and vulnerability of 18 oil producer countries on their per capita income using the GMM method for the time period of 2005-2014. The research results showed that per capita income difference can be related with economic degree of vulnerability of countries, even among oil producing countries that are exposed on oil shocks. As expected, resilience has a positive effect on per capita income of countries. This means that countries with higher resilience have experienced a higher per capita income. Coefficients of economic vulnerability index have been negative and significant, which is consistent with theoretical bases completely and shows that countries with lower vulnerability have higher per capita income.