بررسي علل موفقيت نسبي حكومت سوريه در بحران جاري (بر مبناي نظريه گلدستون)

Exploring the comparative success of the Syrian government in the current crisis

با شكل‌گيري بحران در سوريه، بازيگران منطقه‌اي و فرا منطقه‌اي و حتي گروه‌هايي ازدرون اين كشور، جهت گيري هاي متفاوتي را در رابطه با اين كشوراتخاذنمودند. دراين ميان تلاش معارضان درسوريه براي ساقط كردن حكومت بشار اسدازجلوه هاي بارز اين بحران بود. ولي به دلايلي معارضان شكست خوردندوحكومت سوريه به موفقيتي نسبي در رويارويي با آن‌ها دست‌يافت. در همين راستا پرسشي كه دراينجامطرح مي‌شود اين است كه علت عدم پيروزي معارضين در سوريه و موفقيت نسبي حكومت سوريه طي سال‌هاي گذشته چيست؟ فرضيه‌اي كه در اين زمينه به آزمون گذاشته‌شده است، اين است كه، ريشه‌هاي ناكاني معارضان در سوريه به تركيبي از عوامل همچون ميزان مشروعيت و مقبوليت سياسي حكومت، عدم ظرفيت بسيج اجتماعي معارضين و واكنش ارتش و قدرت‌هاي بين‌المللي برمي‌گردد. هدف اصلي مقاله حاضر كه به روش تحليلي توصيفي انجام‌شده، اين است كه بر اساس نظريه گلدستون به بررسي عوامل ناكامي معارضين در سوريه و دلايل موفقيت نسبي حكومت سوريه بپردازد.

With the development of the crisis in Syria, regional and trans-regional actors, and even some groups outside the country, have taken different orientations regarding this country. Meanwhile, the efforts of the opponents in Syria to overthrow the Syrian government, were among the obvious evidence of the crisis. However, due to some reasons, the adversaries failed and the Syrian government achieved a partial success in confronting them. In this regard, the question that raised is what’s the reason for the failure of the adversaries in Syria and the partial success of the Syrian government over the past years? The hypothesis that has been tested in this regard is that the roots of adversaries ‘failure in Syria rely on a combination of factors such as the degree of legitimacy and political acceptability of the government, the inefficiency of the social mobilization of the adversaries and the reaction of the army and international powers. The main purpose of the present paper, which has been done using descriptive-analytic method is to investigate the failure factors of the opponents in Syria and the reasons for the partial success of the Syrian government based on Goldstone’s theory.