آينده نگاري با رويكرد مدل‌سازي در طراحي تسليحات نظامي

Foresight with Modeling Approach in the Design of Military Armament

ﻨﺎرﯾﻮﭘﺮدازي ﯾﮏ روش ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي راﻫﺒﺮدي و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪاي ﺑﺮاي آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﯽ ﺳـﺎزﻣﺎن ﻫـﺎ ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻌﻄﻒ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت آن را ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎر ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ادراﮐﯽ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎرﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﭘﯿﺮاﻣﻮن ﺷـﺮاﯾﻂ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ در آﯾﻨﺪهﻫﺎي ﺑﺪﯾﻞ دﺳﺖ ﯾﺎﺑﻨﺪ. از ﺳﻮي دﯾﮕﺮ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﯾﮑﯽ از روشﻫﺎي ﭘﺮﮐﺎرﺑﺮد در آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺎري و وﺳﯿﻠﻪاي ﺑﺮاي ﺷﺮح رواﺑﻄﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ اﺗﺼﺎل ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻓﻨﯽ، اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﺑﺎزاري و اﺟﺘﻤـﺎﻋﯽ ﺑـﻪ ﻋﻨـﻮان ﺑﺎزﻧﻤﺎﯾﯽ آﯾﻨﺪه ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﺗﺤﻘﯿـﻖ ﺣﺎﺿـﺮ ﺗـﻼش دارد ﺑـﺎ ﺑﻬـﺮه ﮔﯿـﺮي از اﯾـﻦ دو روش، روﯾﮑـﺮدي ﻋﻠﻤـﯽ و آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺮاي ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺗﺴـﻠﯿﺤﺎت ﻧﻈـﺎﻣﯽ ار اﺋـﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ .ﻟـﺬا ﻫـﺪف ﺗﺤﻘﯿـﻖ ﺣﺎﺿـﺮ ﻣـﺪل ﺳـﺎزي رﯾﺎﺿـﯽ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه در ﺣﻮزه ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺗﺴـﻠﯿﺤﺎت ﻧﻈـﺎﻣﯽ و اراﺋـﻪ رﻫﯿـﺎﻓﺘﯽ ﺑـﺮاي ﺣـﻞ اﯾـﻦ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﻔﺮوﺿﺎت و ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت ﭘﯿﺸﯿﻦ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ ﺳﺎدهﺳﺎزي، ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي و روش ﺣﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺗﺤﻤﯿﻞ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه و در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﯽ و ﻧﻈﺎﻣﯽ ﻏﯿﺮ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي ﻫﺴـﺘﻨﺪ ، ﺣـﺬف و ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ از ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﻫﺪف در ﮔﺮوه ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪاي و از ﻣﻨﻈـﺮ روش در ﮔـﺮوه ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت آزﻣﺎﯾﺸﯽ ﻗﺮار دارد. در ﭘﺎﯾﺎن ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﯿﺰ ﭘﻨﺞ ﻣﺪل رﯾﺎﺿـﯽ ﮐـﻪ از ﭘـﻨﺞ ﺳـﻨﺎرﯾﻮي ﻣﻨـﺘﺞ از اﻟﺰاﻣـﺎت ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﺷﺪه، اراﺋﻪ و ﺗﺸﺮﯾﺢ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ.

Scenario is a strategic planning method and a result of future studies that some organizations use to develop long-term flexible programs to achieve a structured perception of environmental conditions in alternative futures. On the other hand, modeling is one of the most widely used methods in prospecting and a means for describing relationships that connect the technical, economic, market and social factors as a representation of the future. The present research tries to present a scientific and futuristic approach to designing military weapons using these two methods. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to simulate the possible scenarios of future wars in the field of military weapons design and provide an approach to solve these models. For this purpose, the assumptions and limitations of previous research (Due to simplification of modeling and solving methods, they are imposed on similar issues and are inoperative in operational conditions) have been removed and modified. The research is in the development research and experimental research group. At the end of the research, five mathematical models from five scenarios of future wars have been presented