پديد آورندگان :
هاشمي نژاد، آذر دانشگاه علوم كشاورزي و منابع طبيعي خوزستان , عبدشاهي، عباس دانشگاه علوم كشاورزي و منابع طبيعي خوزستان , غنيان، منصور دانشگاه علوم كشاورزي و منابع طبيعي خوزستان , خسروي پور، بهمن دانشگاه علوم كشاورزي و منابع طبيعي خوزستان
چكيده لاتين :
Introduction: One of the most important challenges facing the world is how to feed expected population by
2050. Despite trying to increase food production over the past half-century, food security has been a strategic
issue and an important goal of agricultural policies in many countries by challenges including population grow,
increasing demand, natural resources erosion, etc. One of the critical dimensions in achieving food security is
expanding food supply chain. A food supply chain can be defined as a set of interdependent components include
of input supply, production, storage, processing, marketing, distribution and consumption or as the activities
from ‘farm to fork’. Bread supply chain in Iran, is one of the most important food supply chain because bread is
considered as the most important food source and is staple food of choice, so it has a special place in
household’s nutrition pattern that supply 46.2% and 59.3% of energy for urban and rural people. Also, wheat is
the raw material of bread and one of the strategic and critical crops in Iran agriculture. More than 80% of wheat
consumption in Iran is predominantly used for bread. Wheat is the staple food of the national diet of Iranian
households, who draw, on average, 47% of their daily calorie from wheat products. Although the population of
Iran is nearly 1% of world population, it consumes roughly 2.5% of wheat produced worldwide. But, wheat is
exposed to different kinds of risks such as natural disasters, including environmental concerns and climate
change, pests and diseases, market vacillations and government policy that affect bread supply chain
performance. So, the objective of this study is to explore factors affecting wheat production risk in bread supply
chain.
Materials and Methods: In this study regression analysis was used to determine the effects of variables on
wheat production risk. The used data was time series for wheat production, wheat guarantee price, harvested
area, rainfall, temperature, wheat axial plan, seed consumption, wheat import and export variables during 1982-
2014. In order to explore factors affecting wheat production risk, at first wheat production variance as the risk
criterion was estimated by ARCH (2) Model. The used data in the study was time series and therefore applying
Ordinary Least Squares method in estimating regression equation would lead to pseudo regression. Since based
on Augmented Dicky-Fuller method, variables were combination of I (0) and I (1), therefore Autoregressive
Distributed Lag Model has been used to determine short run and long run relationship.
Results and Discussion: Results revealed that wheat production risk was affected by population, wheat
imports, rainfall, wheat guaranteed prices, harvested area and wheat axial plan variables which population,
import, rainfall, harvested area had a positive effect and guaranteed price and wheat axle plan had a negative
effect on wheat production risk. Therefore increasing population growth, import, rainfall and harvested area
would lead to risk increase while increasing price and the implementation of wheat axis plan would reduce
wheat production risk. So, increasing population and consumption, have also increased wheat import in recent
years. While wheat import have reduced domestic production and farmers' incentives that would lead to
increased wheat production risk. The tools used by governments for increasing domestic production against
wheat import and increasing producer’s incentives are guaranteed price and wheat axial plan. Another effective
cause of wheat production risk was climate changes and extreme weather events. Farmers’ economic profit was
influenced severely and even determined by climate changes and weather events. Also, during this period, wheat
harvested area had nearly doubled. This growing trend has also increased the risk of wheat production.
Conclusion: wheat is a strategic crops in Iran. So, it is necessary to reduce its production risk. Wheat
production risk was reduced by applying weather-based crop insurance scheme, sustaining the guaranteed price
of wheat, supporting plans such as wheat axial plan, improving policies such as wheat imports and optimizing
harvested area.
