پديد آورندگان :
كريم، محمدحسين دانشگاه خوارزمي، تهران , دادرس مقدم، امير دانشگاه سيستان و بلوچستان - گروه اقتصاد كشاورزي، زاهدان , حسيني، مهدي دانشگاه سيستان و بلوچستان - گروه اقتصاد كشاورزي، زاهدان , سيدان، محسن سازمان تحقيقات آموزش و ترويج كشاورزي - مركز تحقيقات و آموزش كشاورزي و منابع طبيعي استان همدان - بخش تحقيقات اقتصادي اجتماعي و ترويج كشاورزي
كليدواژه :
الگوريتم تقريب تابع ژنتيك , خراسان جنوبي , زرشك , عناب , مديريت ريسك
چكيده فارسي :
عمده اقتصاد در نواحي روستايي استان خراسان جنوبي بر كاشت و فروش سه محصول مقاوم به كم‌آبي و خشكي و در عين حال با ارزش اقتصادي بالا يعني زرشك، زعفران و عناب استوار مي‌باشد. در حدود 98 و 96 درصد توليد زرشك و عناب كشور در اين استان انجام مي‌گيرد و مخاطرات طبيعي بي‌شماري اين محصولات استراتژيك را تهديد مي‌كند. اين پژوهش به بررسي عوامل تأثيرگذار بر مديريت ريسك توليد اين دو محصول در استان خراسان جنوبي مي‌پردازد. جامعه آماري تحقيق حاضر شامل كشاورزان استان خراسان جنوبي مي‌باشند. براي جمع آوري داده‌ها از ابزار پرسشنامه استفاده شده است. داده‌ها و اطلاعات با روش نمونه‌گيري تصادفي از 145 و 130 توليدكننده زرشك و عناب در سال 1397 جمع آوري شده است. روايي پرسشنامه با استفاده از نظرات اساتيد و كارشناسان مورد تائيد قرار گرفت و پايايي آن نيز از طريق آزمون آلفاي كرونباخ محاسبه گرديد كه مقدار آن براي بخش‌هاي مختلف پرسشنامه بالاتر از 0/71 به دست آمد كه نشان از قابليت پايايي پرسشنامه دارد. در تحقيق حاضر با استفاده از توابع خطي و با ضرايب بدست آمده از الگوريتم تقريب تابع ژنتيك به پيش‌بيني سهم عوامل مؤثر بر آگاهي از مخاطرات توليدكنندگان زرشك و عناب پرداخته شده است. نتايج نشان داد كمترين اثر بر شاخص مخاطرات توليدكنندگان زرشك مربوط به خطر سرمازدگي محصول است. بيشترين درجه تأثيرگذاري را آگاهي از خطر تگرگ بر شاخص مخاطرات توليدكنندگان عناب در منطقه خراسان جنوبي داشته است. لذا پيشنهاد مي‌شود نظام ترويج و آموزش كشاورزي و هواشناسي كشاورزي براي بهبود دانش مديريت ريسك و مهارتهاي كشاورزان منطقه خراسان جنوبي، با ارائه برنامه‌هاي آموزشي مناسب پيش آگاهي‌هاي لازم را در مواجه با خطرات (خشكسالي، سرمازدگي، سيل، طوفان، بارندگي‌هاي ناگهاني و...) براي باغداران ترسيم نمايند.
چكيده لاتين :
Introduction and Aim: Agriculture is a risky occupation. The different natural, social, and economic
hazards have created handicaps and problems for agricultural producers, which result in the instability of income
for producers. In general, the nature and environment of agricultural activities are at high risk. The risks of
agricultural activities are often associated with low performance, increased cost, and time lag. In order to from
the perspective of risk management, studies can be categorized into three types including product hazards, price
risks, and natural hazards. Major economies in the rural areas of south Khorasan province is based on the
planting and selling three products of barberry, saffron and jujube, which are resistant to water deficit and
drought, and at the same time all have the high economic value. This province in Iran accounts for about 96 to
98% of the barberry and jujube production. Therefore, this study aims to examine the factors affecting the
barberry and jujube production in the South Khorasan province, Iran. .
Materials and Methods: Genetic function approximation (GFA) algorithm describes the basic problem of
approximating the function. Many factors affect the response variable and primary input correlated with best
response. The GFA algorithm works with a range of strings called population, developed for the purpose of
searching. The selection, crossover, and mutation operators also run appropriately. New members were given
scores according to the estimator’s criteria. In the GFA, the criteria scoring is obtained for fitted regression
models. The selection probabilities should add each new member to the population again. This method continued
for a specified number of generations until the point of convergence. GFA algorithm can be used to produce a
generation with respect to the evolution charts according to the achieved time. This graph shows the number of
events for each variable about the population, which has evolved for each generation. GFA algorithm converges
as no progress in population occurred. At this time, the model is significant which means the best choice for all
models of population. Using GFA and MS modeling software, modeling is used to identify the factors affecting
the knowledge of barberry and jujube producers in order to determine which one of 15 independent variables
were effective on the risk management information of barberry and juvenile producers in South Khorasan
province.
Results and Discussion: The results showed that frostbite risk had the lowest risk, affecting the risk index of
barberry producers. Awareness of hail hazards exerted the greatest effect on the risk index of jujube producers in
south Khorasan region. The least effective factor was the awareness of fire hazards in the jujube gardens.
Conclusion: The results suggest that most jujube and barberry producers use traditional knowledge and
experience and do not acquire the necessary training that are needed for dealing with natural hazards due to poor
knowledge and non-compliance with the principles of agricultural education in dealing with hazards. Therefore,
it is recommended that the system of agricultural extension and education and agricultural meteorology must
have been improved the knowledge of the farmers' risk management and skills in the southern Khorasan region
by presenting appropriate training programs to address these risks (drought, storm, sudden precipitation, etc.).
Accordingly, the information and promotion system, accompanied with appropriate training in relation to new
innovations, will increase the awareness among the male and female producers and government support should
be taken in this area. So producers can use modern methods for better managing natural hazards in the Jujube and Barberry gardens of South Khorasan province.
