ترجيحات شيعي – سني باروري در ايران

در اين تحقيق، الگوها و تعيين كننده هاي مرتبط با ترجيحات باروري گروه هاي شيعي و سني مذهب در ايران را مورد توجه و بررسي قرار مي دهيم. مطابق نتايج اين تحقيق، بيشترين ترجيح باروري هم در جمعيت شيعي مذهب و هم در جمعيت سني مذهب معطوف به الگوي "خانواده دو فرزندي" است، درحاليكه دو الگوي "خانواده بي فرزندي" و "خانواده تك فرزندي" نه در جمعيت شيعي مذهب و نه در جمعيت سني مذهب چندان پذيرفتني نيست. درعين حال، اين الگوهاي كلي تحت تاثير سه دسته تعيين كننده هاي جمعيت شناختي (مانند محل سكونت، وضعيت تاهل، سن، و سطح تحصيلات)، دينداري و نگرش جنسيتي است. در مجموع، يافته هاي اين تحقيق را مي‌توان اينگونه جمعبندي و تبيين كرد كه تعلقات ديني مذهبي همچون يك عنصر ثانوي در تبيين ترجيحات باروري عمل مي كنند و سطح توسعه اقتصادي اجتماعي و واقعيت هاي زندگي روزمره نقش بمراتب مهمتري ايفا مي كنند كه مخصوصا بايد به نقش تعيين كننده متغيرهايي همچون روستانشيني در برابر شهرنشيني، سنت گرايي و بيسوادي در برابر مدرنيسم و گسترش تحصيلات عالي اشاره كرد.

This study examines the association between religious belonging and fertility preferences, and presents research-based evidence in order to explain the patterns and determinants related to Shi'a and Sunni preferences for fertility. This analysis is based on a survey conducted in rural and urban areas of Ahvaz, Babolsar, Bojnord, Esfarayen, Gonbad Kavos, Kamyaran, Khoramabad, Mahmoudabad, Hamadan, and Saghez. The survey includes 4267 males and females aged 15 years old and over. According to the preliminary results of this analysis, three general patterns can be addressed. First, the two-child family is the most visible observation that is preferred by most Shi'a and Sunni populations. Second, both childlessness and one-child family are preferred by a negligible proportion of Shi'a and Sunni populations. Third, Sunni population tends to prefer a relatively higher number of children as compared with Shi'a population. However, these general observations are substantially affected by three groups of determinants: demographic determinants (such as age, place of residence, marital status, level of education), religiosity and gender attitudes. Finally, the results can be summarised and explained by the underlying conclusion that religious belonging tends to play a role as a secondary determinant of the fertility preference of Shi'a and Sunni populations, whereas the level of socio-economic development and daily-life facts play a significantly more important role. This particularly applies to such determinants as urbanization, modernization and education.