پديد آورندگان :
عسگري، شمس اله سازمان تحقيقات آموزش و ترويج كشاورزي - مركز تحقيقات و آموزش كشاورزي و منابع طبيعي استان ايلام , شادفر، صمد سازمان تحقيقات آموزش و ترويج كشاورزي - پژوهشكده ي حفاظت خاك و آبخيزداري، تهران , جعفري، محمدرضا سازمان تحقيقات آموزش و ترويج كشاورزي - مركز تحقيقات و آموزش كشاورزي و منابع طبيعي استان ايلام
كليدواژه :
بار رسوبي , حوضه ي گل گل , زمين لغزش , شاخص ها , مدل موران
چكيده فارسي :
بررسي نقش زمين لغزش در توليد رسوب حوضه آبخيز از مسائل ضروري در مباحث مديريت حوضه هاي آبخيز است. هدف اين تحقيق، معرفي مدلي مناسب در زمينه ي تأثير زمين لغزش بر بار رسوبي در حوضه آبخيز گل گل در استان ايلام است، با اين فرض كه بين شاخص هاي تأثيرگذار زمين لغزش بر بار رسوبي حوضه ي حاكم رابطه ي خطي وجود دارد. بنابراين، داده هاي دبي رسوب حوضه گل گل به دو روش روزانه مشاهده اي و سالانه، با استفاده از منحني سنجه رسوب حد وسط دسته ها در طول دوره ي 30 ساله تحليل و برآورد شد. زمين لغزش هاي فعال حوضه به كمك تصاوير ماهوارهاي و بررسي ميداني، شناسايي و با استفاده از مدلهاي خود همبستگي فضايي در محيط نرم افزاري GIS تحليل شد. نتايج نشان داد كه بهترين مدل، مدل خود همبستگي فضايي موران است. زمين لغزشها نيز از الگوي خوشه اي برخوردار است. بعد از تحليل عوامل در مدل همپوشاني شاخصها، ليتولوژي مارني سازند گورپي به عنوان علت الگوي خوشه اي بودن زمين لغزشها معرفي شد. نتايج تحليل كمي متغيرها در نرم افزارهاي آماري و همبستگي در رگرسيون يك و دو متغيره، رابطه ي خطي بين شاخص هاي تأثيرگذار زمين لغزش بر بار رسوبي حوضه را نشان مي دهد. اما اين همبستگي در رگرسيون چند متغيره نشان داد كه بين شاخص هاي تأثيرگذار زمين لغزش بر بار رسوبي در اين حوضه، ارتباط غير خطي حاكم است و شاخص شيب متوسط زمين لغزش ها با ضريب تبيين 0/997 و مساحت زمين لغزش با ضريب تبيين 0/870 ، بيشترين تأثير را بر بار رسوبي در اين حوضه دارد. البته استفاده از روش اين تحقيق مي تواند نتايج بهتري را در پژوهش هاي آتي به همراه داشته باشد.
چكيده لاتين :
1- Introduction
Investigating the relationship between landslides in sediment production in watersheds is one of the most
important issues in the management of watersheds. The purpose of this research is to introduce a suitable model
for the effect of landslide on sediment load in Gol Gol watershed in Ilam province, with the assumption that the
linear relationship between the indices of landslide influence on the sediment load of the basin is dominant.
Therefore, the data of Flood Basin sedimentation in two observation and annual observation methods were
estimated by using the sediment curve within the groups during the 30-year period. Active basin landslides had
been identified using satellite imagery and field analysis and had been analyzed using spatial correlation
models in the GIS software environment. The results showed that Moran spatial autocorrelation model is the
best model and landslide of cluster pattern. After analysis of factors in the overlapping model of indices, the
cause of cluster pattern of landslides were introduced marl lithology of Gurpi Formation. The results of
quantitative analysis of variables in the statistical software, correlated in one and two-variable regressions,
showed a linear relationship between the indicators of landslide on sediment load of the basin, but this
correlation in multivariate regressions showed that nonlinear relationship between the indicators of influence
Landslide dominates the sediment load in this basin, and the mean slope index of landslides with a coefficient
of explanation of 0.997 and landslide area with a coefficient of explanation of 0.870 has the most effect on
sediment load in this basin. Of course, the use of this research method can provide better results in future
research.
2- Methodology
Assuming that the linear relationship between the landslide indexes is dominant over sediment load of the
basin. Flood discharge basin data were analyzed in two observational and annual methods using the sediment
curve of the middle classes during the 30-year period. The active lake landslides have been analyzed using
spatial correlation model of mooran and this spatial analysis has shown that landslides are of cluster pattern and
spatial autocorrelation is related to the indices of landslide and sediment load in the basin. There are several
methods for estimating suspended sediment load. In this study, the power relationship between flow discharge
and suspended sediment flux, known as depositional curve, is used. The data of water flow and discharge of the
Seduce Glommed hydrometric stations were obtained from the regional waters of Ilam province. At first, daily,
monthly and annual sedimentation rates were calculated over the entire statistical period. Then, the method of
drawing the curve of sediment was used as the middle method. The sediment curve is plotted using statistical
data of discharge flow and sediment discharge. The data series for the statistical period were used to plot the
sediment yield curve. According to the available hydrometric station data, in which the annual discharge of the
deposit was recorded simultaneously with the flow rate several times, the sediment curve was plotted on a
logarithmic scale.
3- Results
The results of 9 active landslides in the basin area are shown as independent variables and sediment as a
dependent variable in the mud GOLGOL basin. These data are analyzed in SPSS21 software and the data in
the software is bi-dimensional zed to have the same unit to not have the degree of impact under the single
domain. In the next step, using regression models are analyzed that step models Stepwise, forward or forward,
are the best models for analyzing the correlation of variables. In general, the mean of the correlation of data is
significant and in the multivariate (multiple), regression is a non-linear relationship, while if a variable or even
two independent variables are analyzed with a dependent variable of the deposition, the linear relationship is
shown, so that it cannot be judged , for example, the variable area has a direct relation with the increase or
decrease of sediment, but it is necessary to be analyzed in the conditions of the catchment area, and taking into
account the other variables that influence the landslide in the sedimentation of this process. Therefore,
nonlinear relationship.
4- Discussion & Conclusions
The results showed that the cluster pattern of landslides was marl lithology of the Gourpi Formation and the
best model was Moran spatials autocorrelation. Correlation in one and two-variable regressions shows a linear
relationship between the indices of landslides influence on sediment load of the basin, but correlation in
multivariate regression showed that non-linear relationship between the indices of landslide on sediment load in
this basin is dominant and The mean slope index of landslides with a coefficient explanation of 0.997 and
landslides area with a coefficient of explanation of 0.870 had the most effect on sediment load in this basin.
