تعيين تأثير افزايش سطح عمومي قيمت‌ها بر بهداشت مواد غذايي: بررسي گذشته نگر

Determine the effect of an increase in the general level of prices on food health: a retrospective study

هدف اين پژوهش بررسي تأثير شوك­ هاي پولي و قيمت مواد غذايي بر بهداشت مواد غذايي است و از جهات مختلفي داراي اهميت و ضرورت است كه مهم ترين آن امنيت غذا و تغذيه در ايران است، امنيت غذا و تغذيه زماني حاصل مي شود كه همه مردم در همه زمان­ها مقدار كافي و با كيفيت از غذاهاي متنوع با محتواي مواد غذايي ايمن، براي تأمين احتياجات مصرف نمايند و زندگي سالم و فعال توأم با بهداشت، مراقبت مكفي و محيط سالم در اختيار داشته باشند. داده ­هاي مورد نياز براي انجام اين پژوهش، از بانك اطلاعات سري زماني اقتصادي بانك مركزي جمهوري اسلامي ايران و سازمان نظارت بر مواد غذايي وزارت بهداشت و درمان و آموزش پزشكي در طي دوره 1396-1355 استخراج شده است. براي تجزيه و تحليل داده­ ها از مدل كارگو (2005) استفاده شده است، اين مدل، يك الگوي تصحيح خطا با متغيرهاي آلودگي ميكروبي مواد غذايي، قيمت حقيقي مواد غذايي، درآمد سرانه حقيقي (درآمد سرانه به قيمت­ هاي ثابت)، نرخ ارز حقيقي (نسبت قيمت‌هاي خارجي به قيمت‌هاي داخلي بر حسب يك پول مشخص)، و شوك ­هاي منفي و مثبت عرضه پول (افزايش حجم نقدينگي در يك دوره مشخص) مي­ باشد. نتايج حاكي از آن است در بلندمدت، شوك­ هاي مثبت و منفي پولي به ترتيب، داراي اثر مثبت و منفي معنادار و درآمد سرانه حقيقي نيز داراي اثر مثبت و معنادار بر آلودگي ميكروبي مواد غذايي در ايران است.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of monetary shocks and food prices on food health. an‎d it's important and necessary in many ways. The most important is food and nutrition security in Iran, food and nutrition security is achieved when all people At all times, the quantity and quality of the various foods with safe food content will be used to meet the needs and have a healthy and active life with health, a healthy environment and adequate care. Required data are extracted from the Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran Economic Time Database and the Food and Drug Administration of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education during the period of 1975-96. The model used in the Cargo (2005) model was taken. This model is an error correction model with food contamination variables, real food prices, real per capita income, real exchange rate, and negative and positive money supply shocks. The results indicate that in the long run, positive and negative monetary shocks have a positive and negative effect on food micro-nutrients, as well as actual per capita income has a significant and positive effect on food microbial contamination in Iran.The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of monetary shocks and food prices on food microbial contamination, and it is important and necessary in many ways, most important of which is food and nutrition security in Iran, food and nutrition security is achieved when all people At all times, the quantity and quality of the various foods with safe food content will be used to meet the needs and have a healthy and active life with health, a healthy environment and adequate care. Required data are extracted from the Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran Economic Time Database and the Food and Drug Administration of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education during the period of 1975-96. The model used in the Cargo (2005) model was taken. This model is an error correction model with food contamination variables, real food prices, real per capita income, real exchange rate, and negative and positive money supply shocks. The results indicate that in the long run, positive and negative monetary shocks have a positive and negative effect on food micro-nutrients, as well as actual per capita income has a significant and positive effect on food microbial contamination in Iran.