واكاوي سينوپتيكي الگوهاي فشار مرتبط با بلاكينگ هاي مؤثر بر رخداد بارش هاي مداوم و سنگين تبريز (طي سال هاي 1951 تا 2013)

Synoptic analysis Pressure Patterns Associated With The Blocking Of Influencing Events Heavy Rain in Tabriz (1951 to 2013 period

ﻣﺎﻫﯿﺖ ﺑﺎرش ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ و ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از آن ﺳﺒﺐ ﺷﺪه ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه اﻫﻤﯿﺖ وﯾﮋهاي در ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰيﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ و ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر واﮐﺎوي ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﻪي ﺑﻼﮐﯿﻨﮓ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎرشﻫﺎي ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ در 1379 ﻣﻮرد روز ﺑﺎرﺷﯽ، ﻧﻘﺸﻪﻫﺎي ﻓﺸﺎر ﺗﺮاز درﯾﺎ، ارﺗﻔﺎع ژﺋﻮﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﯿﻞ ﺗﺮاز 500 ﻫﮑﺘﻮﭘﺎﺳﮑﺎل، ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻪﻫﺎي ﺑﺎد، ﻫﻤﮕﺮاﯾﯽ ﺷﺎر رﻃﻮﺑﺖ ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﻘﺸﻪﻫﺎي ﻫﻤﺪﯾﺪي و ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﺟﻮي ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﻧﺎوهﻫﺎ، ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﻪ-ﻫﺎي ﮐﻢ ﻓﺸﺎر و ﭘﺮﻓﺸﺎر ﺳﻄﺢ زﻣﯿﻦ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪ. دادهﻫﺎي ﺑﺎرش روزاﻧﻪ ﺑﺮاي اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روﯾﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺑﻪ ﮔﺮدﺷﯽ ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1951-2013 ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺳﻪ اﻟﮕﻮي اﺻﻠﯽ ﻓﺸﺎر ﺗﺮاز درﯾﺎ در اﯾﺠﺎد اﯾﻦ ﺑﺎرشﻫﺎ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﻮده و اﺳﺘﻘﺮار ﺳﺮدﭼﺎل در ﻏﺮب ﭘﻬﻨﻪي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ و ﻫﻤﺮاﻫﯽ ﺳﻄﺢ زﻣﯿﻦ، ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ را ﺑﺮاي اﯾﺠﺎد ﺑﺎرش ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ

In this study, to analyze the effect blocking system on the precipitation during 1379 Sample rain, the weather maps of mean sea level pressure, geopotential height at 500 hpa level, wind components, moisture flux convergence and were analyzed. The data of daily precipitation were analyzed for meteorological stations by using Environmental approachto circulation during 1951 to 2013.The results suggest that three patterns have been effective in a rain storm and the establishment of Scutoff low in the Wast North West Iran and its associated trough displacement and ground accompaniment, which have provided the conditions for the creation of heavy rainfall. Because heavy rainfall is a type of atmospheric anomaly, many researchers are looking at how it occurs in abnormal weather patterns, including blocking patterns and other unusual synoptic patterns. Systems that are cut from the main west turn are called blocking systems (Habibi, 2006: 70). Researchers who have studied blocking systems such as Silman (2008) using the atmospheric-ocean output model, Kumar et al. (2008) using the air forecasting model, Timevios et al. (2010) using the Self Orgnizing Map (SOM), Caspar and Muller (2010) used the clustering method of hierarchy and Hang et al. and Yarahmadi and Marijanji (2011) by studying the low pressure system on the earth's surface, the atmosphere of the mid-atmosphere and the rise of cold weather an‎d Gavidel (2014) have studied blocking system with the occurrence of blocking at 500, 600 and 700 hectopascal levels. Methodology In this study, High-level atmospheric data for rainfall analysis of days that have been rainy for more than 1 day include altitude geopolitical data of 500 HPL (meter potential), Uwind and Vwind (meters per second) and special humidity (grams per kilogram). These data are from 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 Greenwich Mean Time in the range of 0 to 80 degrees north and 0 to 120 degrees east with a spatial resolution of 2.5 × 2.5 degrees. It has been extracted from a database (NCEP / NCAR) affiliated with the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. First in the form of an environmental approach to circulation, Rainfall of more than one day in the spring during 62 years of statistics, which is 1379 days, was extracted. From these 1379 rainy days, based on the base index of 99th percentile, precipitation of more than 25.88 mm was selected. Therefore, 58 days of precipitation became the basis for the study of heavy spring rains. Because the purpose of the work is to check the blocking, the period of precipitation should be more than one day to determine the cause of heavy precipitation based on blocking or other systems. Then, using cluster analysis, the clustering of these 58 rainy days was studied. The results showed that three pressure patterns are effective in creating rainfall in Tabriz. For each of the patterns, a representative day with a correlation threshold of 95% was calculated and analyzed. Results and discussion At the time of pressure pattern 1, the Siberian high-pressure range stretched from 45 to 55 degrees north latitude to the west to the northern latitudes of Iran, and with low pressure on Turkey, provided thermal gradient. At the pressure pattern 2, a strong high-pressure nucleus with about 1032 HPL was formed in northern Mongolia. The tabs on this core, along with the high-pressure tabs of Siberia, have created extremely stressful conditions at the site of the low-pressure collision on northwestern Iran and Turkey. At the time of the establishment of the pressure pattern 3, tabs of the high-pressure system of the Scandinavian islands were drawn from the Black Sea to northwestern Iran. On the other hand, the whole of Iran is covered by the low pressure spread by Saudi Arabia. These conditions have led to an increase in the temperature and the provision of fronts and instability in Tabriz. In this way, the heavy rainfall that can be seen in the depths of the heart of this instability can be justified. Conclusion The results of synoptic analysis of pressure patterns related to blocking effective on the occurrence of heavy rainfall in Tabriz area indicate the formation of blocking phenomenon of high pressure type on the region. This system stops the movement of air circulation patterns, during which the patterns governing the atmosphere remain in place for several days. In the face of this system, the waves of the western winds are divided into two branches, north and south. This allows the waves to travel further north or south.