پديد آورندگان :
ﻣﯿﺮزاﯾﯽ ﺣﺴﻨﻠﻮ اﯾﻮب داﻧﺸﮕﺎه اروﻣﯿﻪ - داﻧﺸﮑﺪة ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ - ﮔﺮوه ﻣﺮﺗﻊ و آﺑﺨﯿﺰداري , عرفانيان مهدي داﻧﺸﮕﺎه اروﻣﯿﻪ - داﻧﺸﮑﺪة ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ - ﮔﺮوه ﻣﺮﺗﻊ و آﺑﺨﯿﺰداري , ﻋﺒﻘﺮي ﻫﯿﺮاد داﻧﺸﮕﺎه اروﻣﯿﻪ - داﻧﺸﮑﺪة ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ - ﮔﺮوه ﻣﺮﺗﻊ و آﺑﺨﯿﺰداري
كليدواژه :
ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ روﻧﺪ , ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PCI , ﺣﻮﺿﮥ درﯾﺎﭼﮥ اروميه , بارندگي و شاخص تمركز بارش
چكيده فارسي :
درﯾﺎﭼﮥ اروﻣﯿﻪ، در ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت ﺷﺪﯾﺪ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ رﻗﻮم ارﺗﻔﺎﻋﯽ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﺮاز آب درﯾﺎﭼﮥ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﺳﯿﺮ ﻧﺰوﻟﯽ ﭘﯿﺪا ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﯽ از ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮان ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ را ﯾﮑﯽ از دﻻﯾﻞ اﺻﻠﯽ آن ﻣﯽ داﻧﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﯽ رﺳﺪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات روﻧﺪ ﺑﺎرش ﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ و ﺳﺎﻻﻧﮥ ﺣﻮﺿﮥ درﯾﺎﭼﮥ اروﻣﯿﻪ از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ وﯾﮋه اي ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ، ﻓﺼﻠﯽ، ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﺑﺎرش PCI در ﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ و ﻓﺼﻠﯽ در اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﻨﻮﭘﺘﯿﮏ )ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ، اروﻣﯿﻪ، ﺗﮑﺎب، ﻣﻬﺎﺑﺎد، اﻫﺮ، ﺳﺮاب، ﺳﻬﻨﺪ، ﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ( در ﺣﻮﺿﮥ درﯾﺎﭼﮥ اروﻣﯿﻪ از ﺳﺎل )1988-2013( ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ روﻧﺪ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ روﻧﺪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PCI از آزﻣﻮن ﻣﻦ-ﮐﻨﺪال و ﺷﯿﺐ- ﺳﻦ و آزﻣﻮن ﻣﻦ-ﮐﻨﺪال دﻧﺒﺎﻟﻪ اي ﺑﺮاي ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻧﻘﺎط ﺟﻬﺶ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد، در ﺑﯿﻦ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﻨﻮﭘﺘﯿﮏ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ 7 اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه، ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس آﻣﺎرة آزﻣﻮن ﻣﻦ-ﮐﻨﺪال روﻧﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺸﯽ ﻏﯿﺮﻣﻌﻨﯽ دار و 2 اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه )ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ و ﺳﺮاب( داراي روﻧﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ ﻏﯿﺮﻣﻌﻨﯽ داري اﺳﺖ. اﮐﺜﺮ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﻨﻮﭘﺘﯿﮏ ﺣﻮﺿﮥ درﯾﺎﭼﮥ اروﻣﯿﻪ روﻧﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺸﯽ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ در ﻣﺎه ﻫﺎي )ژاﻧﻮﯾﻪ، ﻧﻮاﻣﺒﺮ، دﺳﺎﻣﺒﺮ( و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ در ﻣﺎه ﻫﺎي )ﻣﯽ، آﮔﻮﺳﺖ، ﺳﭙﺘﺎﻣﺒﺮ( در ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎ روﻧﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس آزﻣﻮن ﺳﻦ- ﺳﯿﻞ و در ﺳﻄﺢ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن 95 درﺻﺪ، ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ و ﮐﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ در اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻣﻬﺎﺑﺎد و اروﻣﯿﻪ اﺗﻔﺎق اﻓﺘﺎده اﺳﺖ و ﻫﯿﭻ ﮐﺪام از اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﻨﻮﭘﺘﯿﮏ داراي ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﯾﮑﻨﻮاﺧﺖ ﻧﺒﻮده )PCI<10( و ﻓﻘﻂ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه اﻫﺮ ﻣﻘﺪار ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ، داراي ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﺳﺖ. ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ روﻧﺪ ﺑﺎرش ﻓﺼﻠﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در ﻓﺼﻞ زﻣﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﻪ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﮐﻨﻨﺪة ﺑﺨﺶ زﯾﺎدي از ﻧﯿﺎز آﺑﯽ درﯾﺎﭼﮥ اروﻣﯿﻪ اﺳﺖ، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي ﯿﻨﻮﭘﺘﯿﮏ داراي روﻧﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺸﯽ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻨﯽ دار ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ
چكيده لاتين :
The lake Urmia has been experiencing rainfall severe fluctuations in the recent years, as water level elevation of the lake Urmia has declined that some of the researchers rainfall reduction is one of the main reasons that it seems to be important to investigate the changes in the monthly and annual precipitation of lake Urmia basin. In this study, monthly, seasonal, annual rainfall and precipitation concentration index at annual and seasonal scale in synoptic stations (Tabriz, Urmia, Takab, Mahabad, Ahar, Sarab, Sahand, Mianeh) in lake Urmia basin from years (1988-2013) was investigated. Then to analysis the rainfall trend and PCI index of the Mann-Kendall and Slope-Sen test were used for identify mutation points. The results showed that among the synoptic stations seven studied, a non-significant reduction trend and stations two (Tabriz and Sarab) had a non-significant increasing trend. most of the synoptic stations of lake Urmia have been observed monthly precipitation in the months (january, november, december)as well as in the months (May, August, september) has been increased in most stations. Based on Sen - Thile test and at %95 confidence level, maximum and minimum amount of annual rainfall decrease occurred in mahabad and Urmia station, respectively. None of the synoptic stations had a uniform temporal distribution (PCI <10) and only the Ahar station has an average annual rainfall distribution. Seasonal precipitation trend analysis showed that in winter the supply of large part of lake Urmia water requirement, most of synoptic stations have reduction trend.
