تحليل «فرصت - تهديد» چهل سال دوم انقلاب اسلامي ( مبتني بر بيانيۀ گام دوم)

The analysis of the “opportunity – threat” of the second phase of the Islamic Revolution based on the statement of the second step of revolution

تحقيق حاضر به ­دنبال تحليل «فرصت ـ تهديد» چهل­ سال دوم انقلاب اسلامي مبتني بر بيانيۀ مقام معظم رهبري (مدّظلّه‌العالي)، پيرامون گام دوم انقلاب اسلامي است. به اين منظور، پژوهشگران با استفاده از روش‌ استنباطي ـ اجتهادي و نظريۀ مبنايي، ابتدا با اتخاذ رويكردي استقرايي از ميان 48 واحد تحليل متن بيانيه، 271 واحد ضبط، تعداد 407 مفهوم محوري، 407 مقولۀ فرعي و 42 مقولۀ اصلي استخراج نمودند. در ادامه محققان با تكيه ‌بر رويكرد قياسي، سطوح «خودسازي، جامعه پردازي و تمدن­ سازي» را از درون متن بيانيه، انتخاب نمودند و مقوله‌هاي استخراج‌شده از رويكرد استقرايي را در ذيل اين سه سطح سازمان‌دهي نمودند. در ادامه با تكيه بر مفاهيم و سطوح استخراج‌شده، تعداد 156 قضيه ساخته و با توجه به ماهيت ايجابي و سلبي آنها، در دو گروه قضاياي با ماهيت فرصت­پايه و قضاياي با ماهيت تهديد­پايه دسته‌بندي شدند. در پايان، قضاياي استخراج‌شده در معرض ارزيابي گروه متمركز نيمه­ساختاري قرار گرفت و از 156 قضيه، تعداد 134 قضيه نهايي و تأييد شد. پس از تركيب قضاياي مشترك، درنهايت 38 قضيه استخراج شد كه از ميان آنها، با توجه به پيام محتواي هر قضيه، 5 قضيه در سطح خودسازي (3 قضيۀ ايجابيِ فرصت­ پايه و 2 سلبيِ تهديدپايه)، 20 قضيه در سطح جامعه ­پردازي (13 قضيه ايجابيِ فرصت­پايه و 7 قضيۀ سلبيِ تهديدپايه) و 13 قضيه در سطح تمدن ­سازي (10 قضيه ايجابي فرصت­پايه و 3 قضيۀ سلبي تهديدپايه) سازمان‌دهي شد. برآيند نهايي تحليل بيانيۀ گام دوم اين است كه: «تمركز بيانيه گام دوم در چشم‌انداز گام دوم انقلاب اسلامي: ايجاد تمدن نوين اسلامي و آمادگي براي طلوع خورشيد ولايت عظمي است». نكتۀ قابل‌توجه در اين فرايند و براساس فراواني قضايا اهميت جامعه ­پردازي به‌عنوان مقدمۀ تمدن­ سازي در فرايند پيش‌روندگي و پيش برندگي انقلاب اسلامي است

This study seeks to analyze the “Opportunity – threat” of the second phase of the Islamic Revolution based on the statement of the second step of revolution that is issued by the supreme leader of Iran. To this end, the researchers employed inferential-ijtihad methodology and basic theory. They firstly utilized an inductive approach and extracted 407 central concepts, 407 subcategories, and 42 main categories from 48 units of the statement’s text analysis units and 271 recording units. In the following, the researchers selected the levels of "self-improvement, civilization-making and community- producing" from within the context of the statement by using the deductive approach and organized the categories that extracted from the inductive approach under these three levels. Then, based on the extracted concepts and levels and regarding to their positive and negative nature a total of 156 theorems were constructed and categorized into two groups of opportunity - based and threat- based theorems based on their positive and negative nature. Finally, the extracted theorems were subjected to semi-structured focus group evaluation and from 156 theorems, 134 ones were finalized and confirmed. After combining common theorems, 38 theorems were finally extracted that according to the message of each theorem’s content, 5 theorems at self-improvement level (3 positive opportunity - based theorems and 2 negative threat- based theorems), 20 theorems at community - producing level (13 positive opportunity - based theorems and 7 negative threat- based theorems) and 13 theorems at civilization-making level (10 positive opportunity - based theorems and 3 negative threat- based theorems) were organized. The end result of the analysis of the statement of the second step of revolution is that “the focus of the second step of the statement in the perspective of the second step of the Islamic Revolution is on the creation of a new Islamic civilization and the preparation for the sunrise of Velayete Ozma. The important point in this process and on the basis of the frequency of theorems is the importance of community - producing as a prelude to civilization in the process of advancement of the Islamic Revolution