ارزيابي پيشنهاد تغيير ماليات بر درآمد شخصي با توجه به ويژگي هاي خمس: رويكرد تعادل عمومي قابل محاسبه

Assessment of the Proposal to Change the Personal Income Tax due to the Features of Khums: Computable General Equilibrium Approach

اصلاح نظام مالياتي همواره از دغدغه‌هاي اصلي اقتصاددانان بوده و از چالش‌هاي مهم سياست‌گذاران است. از دغدغه‌هاي نظام مالياتي ايران توجه به پرداخت‌هاي واجب شرعي (خمس) و خيرات به منظور ترغيب مردم و كاهش بار مالياتي است. يكي از پيشنهادها جايگزيني خمس به جاي ماليات‌هاي متناظر بر درآمد است. خمس ساختاري همانند ماليات بر مجموع درآمد با نرخ يكنواخت دارد. در اين تحقيق آثار اقتصادي اين پيشنهاد ارزيابي مي‌شود. ارزيابي پيشنهادهاي مالياتي غالباً با انجام شبيه سازي‌هايي مورد مطالعه قرار مي‌گيرند. تحقيق حاضر پيشنهاد تغيير ساختار ماليات بر درآمد شخصي در ايران با ويژگي‌هاي خمس (يكساني نرخ و اعمال آن بعد از مصرف) را با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومي قابل محاسبه پويا و ماتريس حسابداري اجتماعي 1390 ارزيابي مي‌كند. نتايج تحقيق نشان مي‌دهد پس انداز خانوار طي يك دوره 30 ساله كاهش يافته و در عين حال مصارف شخصي يا خانوار افزايش مي‌يابد و به عبارتي مصرف زمان حال ترجيح دارد. علي رغم اثر افزايشي مصرف، كاهش پس انداز، كاهش سرمايه گذاري را در پي داشته و نهايتاً توليد ناخالص داخلي كاهش خواهد يافت.

The reform of the tax system has always been a major concern for economists as well as a major challenge for policymakers. One of the main priorities of the Iranian tax system is to delve into consideration of obligatory religious payments (Khums) and charity in order to persuade people to pay taxes as well as to reduce tax burden. One of the suggestions have been offered in this field is to substitute Khums for the corresponding income taxes. Khums has a structure the same as tax on total income with a flat rate. In the present contribution, the economic effects of this suggestion were evaluated. The assessment of tax proposals is often studied by performing simulations. The present study evaluated and asserted the suggested changes in the personal income tax structure in Iran with the features of khums (rate unionization and its post-consumption) via the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model and the Social Accounting Matrix 1390 (2011). The outcomes of the present study showed that the household savings have been declined over a 30-year period, while household consumption and expenses have increased at the same period of time. In other words, current consumption is preferable rather than saving for the future. In spite of increasing consumption, reduction in saving has resulted in lower investment, which ultimately it would cause a decrease in GDP.