ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﻣﻮرد اﻧﺘﻈﺎر

Impact of the Investor's Mood State on Expected Return on Investment

در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﻣﺘﻌﺪدي ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ارﺗﺒﺎط وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬار ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺣﺎﮐﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎزار و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ اﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت ﺑﺼﻮرت ﺗﺠﺮﺑﯽ ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ و ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﺑﯿﻦ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺮﺑﯽ و ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از ﭘﯿﺶ ﻣﺸﻬﻮد ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ اﯾﺠﺎد ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮاﺗﯽ ﺟﺰﺋﯽ در اﻟﮕﻮي » ﻟﻮﮐﺎس « ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﯽ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﻣﻮرد اﻧﺘﻈﺎر را ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ. ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﻣﻮرد اﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻗﯿﻤﺖﻫﺎي ﺳﻬﺎم و داراﯾﯽ در ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﮔﺬاري و در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺟﺰﯾﯽ، ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﯽ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺟﺰﺋﯽ در ﻓﺎﮐﺘﻮرﻫﺎي وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ )اوﻟﻮﯾﺖزﻣﺎﻧﯽ )ﺑﺘﺎ( و رﯾﺴﮏ ﮔﺮﯾﺰي)اﻟﻔﺎ(( ﺑﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم )ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم( ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ و ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد و ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار ﻣﺘﻠﺐ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ: اﻟﻒ( ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﻮرد اﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم ﺑﺎ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬار راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﮑﻮس دارد. ب( زﻣﺎﻧﯿﮑﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬار وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ ﺧﻮﺑﯽ دارد ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﻮرد اﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ. ج( ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاري ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮي دارد ﺗﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎزار اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار د( وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬار ﻋﺎﻣﻠﯽ اﺳﺎﺳﯽ در راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم اﺳﺖ ه( ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪ ﺳﺎزي وﺿﻌﯿﺖ روﺣﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬار ﺑﺎ اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎي ﻗﯿﻤﺖﮔﺬاري داراﯾﯽ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ ﺷﻮاﻫﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد از ﻧﺎﻫﻨﺠﺎريﻫﺎي درﺣﺎل رﺷﺪ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬار ﮐﻤﮏ ﮐﻨﺪ.

Several studies have examined the relationship between investor's mood and economic conditions . This paper examines the effect of investor sentiment on expected return on capital by considering changes in Lucas's model, considering equity and equity market prices in the context of pricing models and in the context of minor changes. How the slight changes in the mood factors (time preference and risk aversion affect stock prices) are determined and calculated. The results show that: a) The expected rate of return on stocks is inversely related to the investor's mood state; b) When the investor has a good mood state, the effect of the mood state on the expected return on capital increases; c ) The variables of the mood state of affairs are more influential on the investment markets than on the securities market; d) The investor's mood state is an essential factor in the stock return; e) Integrating the investor's mood state with asset pricing patterns can help interpret existing evidence of growing maladies related to investor behavior.