كليدواژه :
ريسك , آب و فاضلاب روستايي , تحليل سلسله مراتبي فازي , تاپسيس فازي
چكيده فارسي :
پروژه‌هاي بزرگ و پيچيده زيربنايي به‌خصوص پروژه‌هاي آب و فاضلاب همواره در معرض بروز ريسك‌هاي مختلف برون و درون‌سازماني قرار دارند. با توجه به افزايش حجم و پيچيدگي پروژه‌هاي آب و فاضلاب روستايي و محدوديت‌هاي تأمين بودجه و منابع مورد نياز، موفقيت انجام آن‌ها در گرو شناسايي، ارزيابي، اولويت‌بندي و مديريت ريسك است. در اين پژوهش با استفاده از ادبيات مروري، تنظيم چك‌ليست و نظرات خبرگان و كارشناسان، ريسك‌هاي موجود در پروژه‌هاي آب و فاضلاب روستايي گيلان شامل 60 ريسك بر اساس 10 حوزه استاندارد دانش مديريت پروژه شناسايي شد. شاخص‌هاي رتبه‌بندي در اين پژوهش به دو بخش شاخص‌هاي اوليه و تكميلي تقسيم شد. 16 ريسك تأثيرگذار از ميان 60 با استفاده از شاخص هاي اوليه بر مبناي احتمال وقوع و اثرگذاري ريسك بر شاخص هاي اوليه پروژه شامل زمان، هزينه ، كيفيت و عملكرد تعيين شد.
چكيده لاتين :
Large and complex infrastructural projects, especially water and wastewater projects are always exposed
to various internal and external risks. Given the increasing volume and complexity of rural water and
wastewater projects, the constraints on funding and resources require their success in identifying,
assessing, prioritizing and managing these risks. In this research, using research literature, checklist,
experts, and expert opinions, the risks in rural areas and rural sewage projects in Gilan were identified
based on the 10 areas of the project management knowledge standard. The ranking indexes in this study
include two parts of the primary and secondary indices: 16 effective risk factors among 60 risks, using the
initial indicators based on the probability of occurrence and the degree of risk impact on the initial
indexes of the project (time, cost, quality, performance) determined. In the next step, based on additional
indicators, the amount of exposure to risk, the level of manageability, the proximity of the occurrence of
risk, the socio-economic effects and the environmental impacts (which are proportional to the climate and
geographical area studied), are used by two methods of fuzzy topsization and hierarchical analysis. Fuzzy
has been evaluated for project risks. Finally, by integrating the results with simple averaging, the final
ranking of the risks is specified. The result of the research showed that the risk of insufficient funding at
the due time was chosen as the most important risk. In addition, the risk of non-payment of time claims of
contractors and work force with a mean score of 2 and the risk of not using feedback results in quality
control and implementation with a mean score of 3.5 were the next priorities. The results of the research
show that the Rural Water and Wastewater Company of Guilan should adopt special measures for the
required budget in order to manage the identified risks, and to conduct more detailed studies of validation
in various projects in the preparatory phases. It should also pledge to pay in due time claims and analysis
in control and quality and implementation.
