توسعه كنام فناورانه فتوولتائيك در ايران با رويكرد مديريت راهبردي كنام

Photovoltaic Technological Niche Development in Iran with Strategic Niche Management Perspective

ﭼﮑﯿﺪه اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻓﻨﺎوري ﻫﺎي اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ، ﻧﯿﺎزﻣﻨﺪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ درﺳﺖ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻓﻨﺎوراﻧﻪ اﺳﺖ. از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ، ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻓﻨﺎوري ﻫﺎي اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ در ﻫﺮ ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺑﻮﻣﯽ آن ﮐﺸﻮر اﻟﺰاﻣﺎت ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ و ﺑﻪ ﻃﯿﻔﯽ از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و ﻓﻨﯽ واﺑﺴﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ راﻫﺒﺮدي ﮐﻨﺎم و در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﻣﻮردي ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ و ﺑﺎ روش ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻓﻨﺎوري ﻓﺘﻮوﻟﺘﺎﺋﯿﮏ از ﻣﻨﻈﺮ اﻧﺘﻈﺎرات، ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎ و ﯾﺎدﮔﯿﺮي ﻣﯽ ﭘﺮدازد. ﻗﻠﻤﺮو زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ، ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي 1370 ﺗﺎ 1398 و ﻗﻠﻤﺮو ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ، ﺣﻮزه اﻧﺮژي ﺧﻮرﺷﯿﺪي در اﯾﺮان اﺳﺖ. اﺑﺰار اﺻﻠﯽ ﮔﺮدآوري داده ﻫﺎ، ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎرﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و داده ﻫﺎي ﺛﺎﻧﻮﯾﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد و روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ داده ﻫﺎ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﺤﺘﻮا و اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﮐﺪﮔﺬاري ﻣﺤﻮري ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎري ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن داراي ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ و ﺗﺨﺼﺺ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ اﻧﺮژي ﺧﻮرﺷﯿﺪي در اﯾﺮان ﺑﻮده ﮐﻪ 20 ﻧﻔﺮ از اﻓﺮاد ﺑﺎ وﯾﮋﮔﯽ ﯾﺎدﺷﺪه ﺑﻪ روش ﮔﻠﻮﻟﻪ ﺑﺮﻓﯽ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب و ﻣﻮرد ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﻧﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﺑﯿﻦ ﻓﺮآﯾﻨﺪﻫﺎي ﮐﻨﺎم ﻧﺸﺎن داده ﺷﺪه ﮐﻪ اﮔﺮ ﭼﻪ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان در اﺑﺘﺪاي دﻫﻪ 1370 ﺑﺴﯿﺎر اﻧﺪك ﺑﻮده اﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ ﮔﺬﺷﺖ زﻣﺎن و وﺿﻊ ﻗﻮاﻧﯿﻦ و ﺑﺮﺧﯽ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺘﯽ ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﺧﺮﯾﺪ ﺗﻀﻤﯿﻨﯽ ﺑﺮق ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ و ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺖ از ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻓﻨﺎوري ﻫﺎي اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ، اﻧﺘﻈﺎرات ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان درﺑﺎره ﮐﻨﺎم ﻓﺘﻮوﻟﺘﺎﺋﯿﮏ رﺷﺪ ﮐﺮده و در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺘﻬﯽ ﺑﻪ رﺷﺪ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان آﻣﻮزﺷﯽ و داﻧﺸﯽ در اواﺳﻂ دﻫﻪ 1380 و رﺷﺪ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪي و ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﯽ ﻃﯽ دﻫﻪ 1390 ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ روﯾﺪادﻫﺎي ﻣﻬﻤﯽ ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﺗﻮاﻓﻖ ﺑﺮﺟﺎم و ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاري ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻧﺘﻈﺎرات و ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان ﻓﺘﻮوﻟﺘﺎﺋﯿﮏ اﯾﺮان ﺗﺸﺮﯾﺢ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.

identification and explanation of the technological change. On the other hand, the development of renewable energy technologies in each country according to its native conditions has different requirements and depends on a range of social and technical factors. The present study analyzes the development of photovoltaic technology from the perspective of expectations, networks, and learning, with the approach of strategic niche management and in the form of historical case studies and qualitative research methods. Data gathering tools are semi-structured interviews and secondary data and the method of data analysis is through content analysis and axial coding. The statistical population for the expert interview is experienced in solar energy in Iran and 20 experts have been selected and interviewed by the snowball technique. Its temporal territory is between 1991 and 2019, and its spatial territory is Iran. Examining the Interaction between niche processes, it was shown that although the network of actors was weaknesses in the early 1991s, with over time and the Enforcement of supportive laws and policies such as feed-in tariff and support for the development of renewable energy technologies, it has finally led to the growth of the network of educational and knowledgeable actors in the mid-2000s and the growth of the network of production and service actors in the 2010s. The impact of important events such as JCPOA and foreign investment on the development of expectations and the network of photovoltaic actors has also been described.