عنوان به زبان ديگر :
Studying the Draughts in Kerman Using four Indices, Namely TOPSIS, SPI, PNPI and Z
چكيده فارسي :
ﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻦ اﯾﺮان ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮ روي ﮐﻤﺮﺑﻨﺪ ﺧﺸﮏ ﺟﻬﺎن واﻗﻊ اﺳﺖ ﻋﻠﯽ رﻏﻢ ﮐﻢ آﺑﯽ، ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺘﻪ در ﻣﻌﺮض ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت و ﺑﯽ ﻧﻈﻤﯽ ﻫﺎي رژﯾﻢ ﺑﺎرش ﻧﯿﺰ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ در اﯾﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺟﻨﻮب ﺷﺮق ﮐﺸﻮر وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮاﺗﺐ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه ﺗﺮ و ﺑﻐﺮﻧﺞ ﺗﺮي دارد. زﯾﺮا ﻋﻠﯽ رﻏﻢ ﺑﺎرش ﮐﻤﺘﺮ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﮐﺸﻮري، ﻗﺮارﮔﯿﺮي در ﻣﺠﺎورت ﯾﮑﯽ از ﺧﺸﻦ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﮐﺎﻧﻮﻧﻬﺎي ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ دﻧﯿﺎ، وزش ﺑﺎدﻫﺎي ﺷﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﺸﮑﻼت و ﻣﻌﻀﻼت ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ اﯾﻦ ﺧﻄﻪ را دو ﭼﻨﺪان ﻧﻤﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﻟﺬا در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﮐﺮﻣﺎن در ﻃﯽ دور 51 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ)1955ـ2005(ﺑﺎ ﭼﻬﺎر ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PNPI، SPI ،TOPSIS و Zو ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮد ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار DIC ﺟﻬﺖ اﺟﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﭼﻬﺎر ﺷﺎﺧﺺ، ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد. در روشTOPSIS ، اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﮐﺮﻣﺎن ﺑﺎ 1 ﺗﺮﺳﺎﻟﯽ،13 ﺳﺎل ﻧﺮﻣﺎل، 4 ﺳﺎل ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺿﻌﯿﻒ، 17 ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ و 16 ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ روﺑﺮو ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﭘﺮدوام ﺗﺮﯾﻦ دوره ﻫﺎي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎي 1964 ﺗﺎ 1971 و 1998 ﺗﺎ 2005 ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. در ﺷﺎﺧﺺ SPIﺑﺎ ﯾﮏ ﺗﺮﺳﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺷﺪﯾﺪ، ﯾﮏ ﺗﺮﺳﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﻼﯾﻢ، 36 ﺳﺎل ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺮﻣﺎل،7 ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﻼﯾﻢ،3 ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ و 2 ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺷﺪﯾﺪ روﺑﺮو ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ و ﻃﻮﻻﻧﯽ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ دور ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺮﻣﺎل ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎي 1974 ﺗﺎ 1984 ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. در ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PNPI 34 ﺳﺎل در آﺳﺘﺎﻧﻪ ﻧﺮﻣﺎل، 6 ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺿﻌﯿﻒ، 7 ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ، ﯾﮏ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ و 2 ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺷﺪﯾﺪ رخ داده اﺳﺖ و ﻃﻮﻻﻧﯽ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ دوره ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ 2002 ﺗﺎ 2005 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. در ﺷﺎﺧﺺ z ،2 ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ، 12ﺳﺎل ﺧﺸﮑﯽ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ،10 ﺳﺎل ﻣﺮﻃﻮب ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ،24 ﺳﺎل ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ﻧﺮﻣﺎل،3 ﺳﺎل ﻣﺮﻃﻮب ﺷﺪﯾﺪ ﺑﻮده، ﻃﻮﻻﻧﯽ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ دوره ﺗﺮ ﺳﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ دوره 1976 ﺗﺎ 1984 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
چكيده لاتين :
Iran territory which is located on the world’s dry belt has constantly been exposed to fluctuations and irregularities of precipitation regime in spite of shortage of water. Meanwhile, the condition of southeast parts of Iran is more complicated because in spite of less precipitation as compared to national average, adjacency to one of the harshest dessert hotspots in the world, strong winds have doubled the environmental problems and complications of this area. In this research therefore, the draught at Kerman station during a 51-year period (1955-2005) was studied using four indices, namely TOPSIS, SPI, PNPI and Z and also by using DIC software in order to execute the said four indices. The results revealed that in TOPSIS method, Kerman station faced 1 wet year, 13 normal years, 4 weak, 17 average and 16 serious draught years. The most durable draught periods referred to 1964-1971 and 1998-2005. In SPI index, Kerman station faced 1 very serious wet year, one mild wet year, 36 years close to normal, 7 mild draught, 3 serious draught and 2 very serious draught years. The longest period close to normal referred to 1974-1984. In PNPI index, 34 years were at normal threshold, 6 weak, 7 mild, one serious and 2 very serious draught years occurred. The longest draught period referred to 2002-2005. In z index, there were 2 serious draught years, 12 mild draught years, 10 mild wet years, 24 approximately normal years, and 3 seriously wet years and the longest period referred to 1976-1984
