تحليل فضايي تغييرات آب وهوايي ايران طي دهه هاي اخير

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Climate Change in Iran During Last Decades

اﻣﺮوزه ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺑﺤﺮان ﻫﺎي ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻫﺎي اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ، از اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪات زﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﺣﯿﺎت ﺑﺸﺮ ﺑﻮده و ﻣﺸﮑﻼت ﻣﺘﻌﺪدي درﮐﺸﻮر ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﻪ وﯾﮋه ﮐﺸﻮر ﻫﺎي در ﺣﺎل ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﯾﺠﺎد ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ. در واﻗﻊ اﮔﺮ ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل رﯾﺸﻪ ﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﺴﯿﺎري از ﺟﻨﮓ ﻫﺎ و ﻧﺎاﻣﻨﯽ ﻫﺎي و ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ ﺑﺴﯿﺎري از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي اﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎﯾﯽ و ﺧﺎورﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﯿﻢ، ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻮاردي ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﻪ ذﻫﻦ ﻣﺘﺒﺎدر ﻣﯿﺸﻮد، ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ و ﺑﺤﺮان ﻫﺎي ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ از ﻗﺒﯿﻞ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻫﺎ، ﻃﻮﻓﺎن ﻫﺎي ﮔﺮدوﺧﺎك، ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب و ﻏﺬا، ﻓﺮﺳﺎﯾﺶ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ ﺧﺎك، ﻣﯿﺒﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻫﻤﻪ آن ﻫﺎ ﻣﻌﻠﻮل ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻣﯿﺒﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﺟﻤﻬﻮري اﺳﻼﻣﯽ اﯾﺮان ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺜﺎﺑﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﮐﺸﻮر ﻫﺎي ﺧﺎورﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ از اﯾﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات آب و ﻫﻮاﯾﯽ و اﺛﺮات ﮔﺴﺘﺮده ﺟﺎﻧﺒﯽ آن ﻣﺼﻮن ﻧﺒﻮده اﺳﺖ. اﻣﺎ ﺷﺪت ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات آب و ﻫﻮاﯾﯽ در ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ زﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﺳﺎﺳﯽ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﺷﺪت ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات دﻣﺎﯾﯽ و ﺑﺎرﺷﯽ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ در اﺳﺘﺎن ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﮐﺸﻮر ﻣﯿﺒﺎﺷﺪ. دراﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ از داده ﻫﺎي 38 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي ﻫﻮاﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ ﻣﺮاﮐﺰ اﺳﺘﺎن ﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﻮر ﻃﯽ دوره آﻣﺎري 1980 ﺗﺎ 2016 ﺟﻬﺖ آﺷﮑﺎر ﺳﺎزي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. از آزﻣﻮن ﻧﺎﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﯾﮏ ﮔﺮاﻓﯿﮑﯽ ﻣﻦ-ﮐﻨﺪال ﺑﺮاي آﺷﮑﺎرﺳﺎزي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ دﻣﺎ و ﺑﺎرش ﮐﺸﻮر ﻃﯽ دروه آﻣﺎري ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات آﺷﮕﺎر ﺷﺪه ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات دﻣﺎﯾﯽ و ﺑﺎرﺷﯽ ﮐﺸﻮر ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﮔﻮﯾﺎي آن ﺑﻮد ﮐﻪ ﻃﯽ دوره آﻣﺎري ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺑﺎرش و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻣﻌﻨﯽ داري در ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﮐﺸﻮر روي داده اﺳﺖ. 30درﺻﺪ از ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺖ ﮐﺸﻮر ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﻧﻮاي ﺷﺮﻗﯽ اﯾﺮان را در ﺑﺮﻣﯿﮕﯿﺮد ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ 4 ﺗﺎ 6 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻤﺘﺮي ﺑﺎرش ﻃﯽ 40ﺳﺎل اﺧﯿﺮ روﺑﺮو ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ و در ﺣﺎﻟﯽ از ﻟﺤﺎظ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎ ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﺷﻤﺎل و ﺷﻤﺎل ﻏﺮب ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ در ﻣﻌﺮض اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎ ﺑﻮده اﻧﺪ.

Nowadays climate change and global warming is the main climatic disaster that should be considered as a natural threat to human. Climate change could trigger the human and environmental risk factors such as water and food shortage, political and economic critic. Drought and water crisis is the main indicator of climate change in Iran. Rainfall and temperature is the main indexes of retrieving climate change in any area.in this study we analysis the spatiotemporal variation of this 2 indicators during 38 years in Iran. We use Man-Kendal trend detection test to reveal the changing points in the long term time series of this climate indicator. The results indicated mean annual temperature in Iran has increasing trend by 0.012 during 1980-2016. The Man-Kendal graphical test also reveal the significant changing in 1992.the rainfall time series despite following the slight decreasing trend but hasn’t the significant changing according Man-Kendal test. Also our result reveals that the temperature and rainfall changes have been observed in all part of Iran. The rainfall changes are more significant in eastern region but the temperature is more changed in northern part of country.