سنجش و ارزيابي ابعاد كالبدي تاب‌آوري شهري در برابر زلزله (مطالعه موردي: منطقه 7 شهر تهران)

Assessment and evaluation of the physical dimensions of urban resilience against earthquakes (Case study: District 7 of Tehran)

موضوع ايمني شهرها در برابر مخاطرات طبيعي يكي از اهداف اصلي برنامه ريزي شهري است، لذا پژوهش در خصوص تاب ‌آوري شهري و شناخت ميزان تاب آوري آنها در مقابل مخاطرات طبيعي بسيار ضروري است. مطالعه حاضر به لحاظ هدف كاربردي و به لحاظ روش توصيفي - تحليلي است.. براي تجزيه تحليل داده‌ها از مدل‌هاي FANP و تاپسيس و نرم‌ افزارهاي SPSS ,Excel, DECISION SUPER ,وGIS ARC استفاده شد. بدين منظور پس از مرور بر متون نظري و تجربي مرتبط شاخص‌هاي تبيين كننده تاب‌آوري كالبدي شناسايي و انتخاب شدند. ابتدا تحليل عاملي با شاخص‌هاي منتخب انجام شد تا ابعاد نشانگر موضوع مورد بررسي، شناسايي و استخراج شوند. در مرحله بعد از روش تحليل شبكه‌اي استفاده شد تا ضريب اهميت نسبي شاخص‌هاي تبيين كننده تاب‌آوري كالبدي محاسبه شود. درنهايت از مدل تاپسيس جهت تحليل داده‌ها و محاسبه ميزان تابآوري منطقه 7 شهر تهران استفاده شد. نتايج حاصل از تحليل عاملي نشان داد كه مي توان 14 شاخص را در 5 عامل خلاصه كرد در اين ميان عامل اول و دوم بيشترين تاثير را در تاب‌آوري كالبدي منطقه 7 شهر تهران داشتند. با جاي‌گذاري و بارهاي عاملي بدست آمده از تحليل عاملي در فرآيند شبكه ضريب اهميت شاخص‌ها بدست آمد به طوري كه شاخص‌هاي دسترسي به معابر داراي عرض مناسب و دسترسي به فضاي سبز با ضريب 0/110 بيشترين تاثير را بر تاب‌آوري كالبدي منطقه 7 شهر تهران داشتند.

The present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of descriptive-analytical method. First, using library studies such as the study of texts related to the subject and previous research and using the opinions of experts in this field, effective criteria for determining the physical dimensions of the city against earthquakes and finally using FANP and TOPSIS model to analyze data will be. For this purpose, after reviewing the relevant theoretical and experimental texts and formulating the theoretical framework of the research, the explanatory indicators of the subject under study have been identified and selected. First, factor analysis was performed with selected indicators. First, factor analysis was performed with selected indicators. The selected indicators were then placed in a network structure; and finally, the weight of each of the criteria and indicators was determined using the ANP method. SUPER DECISION software has been used to do this. Finally, the data is analyzed using the TOPSIS model. The results of factor analysis showed that five factors were identified as the final determinant of physical resilience in the study area, so that the first factor with 24.573% had the greatest effect on physical resilience in region 7. The results showed that this factor, along with the second factor, explains about 42% of the physical dimensions of resilience in the region. By placing the factor load obtained from the factor analysis in the ANP model, the significance coefficient of the index was obtained. The results of the ANP model showed that the two indicators of access to passages with suitable width and access to green space with a coefficient of 0.110 have the greatest effect on the physical reflection of Tehran's 7th district. Finally, using the TOPSIS model, the neighborhoods were ranked The results of TOPSIS model show that there is a big difference in terms of physical resilience between neighborhoods in the study area, so that Bahar neighborhood with 0.568, Niloufar with 0.576 and Abbasabad with 0.498 have the highest physical resilience. On the opposite side of Nezamabad neighborhoods with 0.340, Shargh 0.341 and Khajeh Nezam Al-Molk with 0.346 have the lowest level of physical resilience in region 7.