ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي ﺗﻌﺎدل ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺷﻬﺮي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﻤﺎل ﮐﺸﻮر در اﻓﻖ 1400

Population Balance Planning for Metropolitan Area Network (MAN) in North of Iran in the 1400 Horizon

اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در ﺧﺼﻮص ﻓﺮاﯾﻨﺪ دﮔﺮﮔﻮﻧﯽ و ﺗﺤﻮﻻت ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ در ﻧﯿﻢ ﻗﺮن ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﻤﺎل ﮐﺸﻮر اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه و ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل ﭘﺎﺳﺨﮕﻮﯾﯽ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺳﺆال اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ و اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪاردﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ در ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ ﭼﻪ ﻣﻘﺪار اﺳﺖ و ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺗﻌﺎدل ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ را در ﯾﮏ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻪ وﺟﻮد آورد. روش اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ اﺳﺖ و ﺗﻼش ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه ﺑﺎ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﻤﺎل ﺗﺎ اﻓﻖ 1400 و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي ﺑﺮاي آن ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل رﺗﺒﻪ-اﻧﺪازه ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻠﯽ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﺸﺶ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي و درﺟﻪ آﻧﺘﺮوﭘﯽ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺷﻬﺮي، ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ و اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪارد اﻓﻖ 1400 اراﯾﻪ ﺷﺪه و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻻزم را ﺑﺮاي اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ و ﯾﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺮخ رﺷﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻫﺎ در ﺟﻬﺖ اﯾﺠﺎد ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎي ﺷﻤﺎل ﻃﺮح ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ درﺟﻪ آﻧﺘﺮﭘﯽ ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ در ﻃﻮل دوره ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ رو ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻧﺒﻮده و از0,782در ﺳﺎل 35 ﺑﻪ 0,769 در ﺳﺎل 90 ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺑﯽ ﻧﻈﻤﯽ در ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺷﻬﺮي در ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﻻي 100 ﻫﺰار ﻧﻔﺮ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ در ﻃﻮل 55 ﺳﺎل ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ رﮐﻮد ﮐﺸﺶ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي در ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﻻي 5 ﻫﺰار ﻧﻔﺮ ﺑﺎ رﻗﻢ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ1,267 ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد ﺑﺎ روﻧﺪ رﺷﺪ ﻓﻌﻠﯽ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ در ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎي ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﺎﻻي 100 ﻫﺰار ﻧﻔﺮ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل رﺗﺒﻪ اﻧﺪازه ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻠﯽ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ اﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و ﺷﻬﺮ ﻫﺎي زﯾﺮ 5 ﻫﺰار ﻧﻔﺮ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ داراي ﮐﺴﺮ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ را ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ داﺷﺖ.

This paper aimed to study the process of changes in Metropolitan Area Network (MAN) in north of Iran during the last 50 years. The current study tried to determine the most appropriate and standardized number of population in urban areas and to find out how population balance may be kept in one area. This study is an analytic-descriptive research. With the help of population of population estimation of northern cities dated to 1400, This research made an attempt to plan the population standard up to 1400 horizon. This research also aimed to design a plan for increase or decrease of the rate of urban population growth to make a spatial balance in northern metropolitan areas. To this end, adjustment rank-size model suited to entropy rate of metropolitan areas is being designed. The results show that the Entropy rate in those urban areas during the treatment is not being in balance and is decreased from 0.782 in 1335 to 0.769 in 1390.The most irregularities in metropolitan areas are observed in cities with more than 100 population. During the last 55 years population recession in cities with over 5000 people is shown as 1.267, negatively. With the current population growth based on rank size model northern metropolitan areas over 50000 people in number have the population fraction.