ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﻣﺪل رﯾﺎﺿﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﮑﺎن ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ ﻣﺮاﮐﺰ آﻣﺎدي در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺟﻨﮓ ﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه

Designing a mathematical model for prediction of optimal supply centers in the future wars conditions

در ﻧﺴﻞ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ ﻧﺒﺮدﻫﺎ و در ﻣﯿﺪان ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎزﻋﺎت آﯾﻨﺪه، ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﻻ و ﭘﺸﺘﯿﺒﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﺮﯾﻊ و دﻗﯿﻖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ و ﺗﺠﻬﯿﺰات ﺑﻪ واﺳﻄﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﮑﺎن ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ ﻣﺮاﮐﺰ آﻣﺎدي از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﺻﻠﯽ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﯿﺖ ﻣﺤﺴﻮب ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺗﻼش ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎي رﯾﺎﺿﯽ ﻣﮑﺎن ﯾﺎﺑﯽ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮏ ﻫﺎي ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮي ﭼﻨﺪﻣﻌﯿﺎره ﻓﺎزي، ﻣﺪﻟﯽ ﻋﻠﻤﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﮑﺎن ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ ﻣﺮاﮐﺰ آﻣﺎدي در ﺟﻨﮓ ﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه، ﺿﻤﻦ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺖ ﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻃﻮل ﻣﺴﯿﺮ و ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﯽ اراﺋﻪ ﮔﺮدد. ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ از ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﻫﺪف ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي و از ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﻣﺎﻫﯿﺖ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ ﭘﯿﻤﺎﯾﺸﯽ ﺑﻮده ﮐﻪ از ﻫﺮ دو ﺷﯿﻮه ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪ اي و ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﮔﺮدآوري اﻃﻼﻋﺎت و از روش ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪ ﻗﻀﺎوﺗﯽ در ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻧﻤﻮده اﺳﺖ. در ﻣﺴﯿﺮ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ در ﮔﺎم اول، ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و در ﺳﻪ ﻣﺤﻮر: ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن آﻣﺎدي"،" اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﻣﺴﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﭘﺸﺘﯿﺒﺎﻧﯽ" و اﻣﮑﺎن اﺳﺘﻘﺮار ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ و ﺗﺠﻬﯿﺰات" ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﮏ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮏ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﻪ ﻣﺮاﺗﺒﯽ ﻓﺎزي و ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﯿﺮي از ﻧﻈﺮات ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن ﺳﺎزﻣﺎﻧﯽ وزندﻫﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﯽ ﮔﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮه ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻓﺮﻣﺎﻧﺪﻫﺎن و ﻣﺪﯾﺮان ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺮدد و در اداﻣﻪ ﻣﺪل رﯾﺎﺿﯽ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﮏ داده ﻫﺎي ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه و روش ﻫﺎي ﻣﮑﺎن ﯾﺎﺑﯽ روي ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ و اراﺋﻪ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺮدد. در اﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﮏ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺷﺪه و ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ 15 ﮔﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﮐﺎﻧﺪﯾﺪﻫﺎي اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﻣﺮﮐﺰ آﻣﺎدي )ﮔﺮه ﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﮑﻪ( ﺑﻪ ﺗﺸﺮﯾﺢ ﻣﺪل ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﻣﯽ ﭘﺮدازﯾﻢ.

Due to existence of certain conditions and developing forces at the level in the future wars, accuracy and velocity of the preparation procedure have special importance and is very vital and therefore it is very important to select optimal place/site as a preparation center. Thus this investigation tries to represent a practical model to select optimal places of preparation centers using mathematical models and location finding and using suggestions of elites and military experts in addition to considering the situations like minimizing the length of route and cost of operation. The current study’s purpose is applied and by nature it is descriptive-survey in which library and field research have been conducted for data collection as well as using targeted judgement method has been used in sampling. To achieve the goals in first stage, influential parameters have been identified and in the three phases: “velocity of preparation process”, “security of supportive routes”, and the possibility of establishment of equipment and sources will be calculated getting assistance from fuzzy hierarchal analysis and using elites’ opinions. Then the relative importance of the potential options of research is calculated by help of commanders and operational managers and at the next step the mathematical model of problem will be presented and designed through help obtained data and location models on the networks. Finally, using some designed scenarios and identifying fifteen options as selective candidates of supply center (network knots), the proposed model will be explained and the results will be analyzed.