تحليل وضعيت آينده‌نگاري كارآفريني در ايران

Analysis of Entrepreneurship Foresight in Iran

آﻳﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺎري ﻛﺎرآﻓﺮﻳﻨﻲ، ﻳﻚ ﺟﻬﺖﮔﻴﺮي ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻲ و ﻋﻘﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ آﻳﻨﺪه ي ﻛﺴﺐ و ﻛﺎر اﺳﺖ؛ ﻧﻮﻋﻲ اﺳﺘﺪﻻل ﻋﻤﻠﻲ و ﻛﻨﺘﺮل آﻳﻨﺪه ،ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻮاﻣﻊ و ﺳﺎزﻣﺎﻧﻬﺎ در ﺟﻬﺖ رﺳﻴﺪن ﺑﻪ اﻫﺪاف ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪت در ﺟﻬﺖ رﺷﺪ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻛﻤﻚﻫﺎي ﻣﺆﺛﺮي ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ. در اﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ وﺿﻌﻴﺖ آﻳﻨﺪه ﻧﮕﺎري ﻛﺎرآﻓﺮﻳﻨﻲ در اﻳﺮان ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ.ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ ﻫﺪف ،ﻛﺎرﺑﺮدي و از ﻧﻈﺮ روش ﺟﻤﻊ آوري داده ﻫﺎ از ﻧﻮع ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻔﻲ –ﭘﻴﻤﺎﻳﺸﻲ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ آﻳﻨﺪه ﻧﮕﺎري ﻛﺎرآﻓﺮﻳﻨﻲ و ﻛﺴﺐ و ﻛﺎر ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﮔﺰارش ﻣﻮﺳﺴﻪ ﻣﻜﻨﺰي)2016 ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ ﺷﺪه و ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ ﻣﺤﻘﻖ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﻃﺮاﺣﻲ ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ.رواﻳﻲ و ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻳﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺎﻳﻴﺪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ وﺿﺮﻳﺐ آﻟﻔﺎي ﻛﺮوﻧﺒﺎخ 0/886 و ﺑﺎ روش ﺑﺎزآزﻣﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﻘﺪار ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺑﺎ 0/862 ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻘﺪار ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻟﻲ اﺳﺖ. ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎري ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ 142ﻧﻔﺮ از ﻛﺎرآﻓﺮﻳﻨﺎن ﺑﺮﺗﺮ و داﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎن ﻣﻘﻄﻊ دﻛﺘﺮي رﺷﺘﻪ ي ﻛﺎرآﻓﺮﻳﻨﻲ در ﺷﻬﺮ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ)ﺗﻬﺮان،اﻟﺒﺮز و ﻗﺰوﻳﻦ(ﺑﻮده اﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﻣﻮل ﻛﻮﻛﺮان ﺣﺠﻢ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ103 ﻧﻔﺮ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ.ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﻣﻌﺎدﻻت ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎري و ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار ﻫﺎي SPSS22 وPLSﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ.ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ، ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪ ﻫﺎي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺎﻳﻴﺪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﮔﺮدﻳﺪه اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺶ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ درﺟﻪ ﺑﺎﻻي ﺷﻬﺮ ﻧﺸﻴﻨﻲ،ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﻣﺼﺮف ﻛﻨﻨﺪه رو ﺑﻪ رﺷﺪ،ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮓ رﻳﺸﻪ دار ﻛﺎرآﻓﺮﻳﻨﻲ،ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﻴﺎﻳﻲ اﻳﺮان،ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﺎﻻي ﺗﺤﺼﻴﻼت ﻋﻠﻤﻲ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﺘﻨﻮع ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺑﺮ آﻳﻨﺪه ﻧﮕﺎري ﻛﺎرآﻓﺮﻳﻨﻲ در اﻳﺮان ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ دارﻧﺪ

Entrepreneurship foresight is a cognitive and rational orientation towards the future of business; A kind of practical reasoning and control of the future, which helps communities and organizations to achieve long-term goals for economic growth and development. In this study, the situation of entrepreneurial foresight in Iran has been studied. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of data collection method. For this purpose, the variables affecting entrepreneurship and business futures were identified based on the report of Mackenzie Institute (2016) and a researcher-made questionnaire was designed. The validity and reliability of the study were confirmed and Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.886 and the correlation value was calculated to be 0.862 by the retest method, which is an acceptable value. The statistical population of the study was 142 top entrepreneurs and doctoral students in the field of entrepreneurship in selected cities (Tehran, Alborz and Qazvin). The sample size was determined by Cochran's formula 103 people. SPSS22 and PLS software have been used. Based on the research results, the research hypotheses have been confirmed and it has been determined that six factors (high degree of urbanization, growing consumer class, entrenched culture of entrepreneurship, geographical location of Iran, level High scientific education and diverse economics) have a positive effect on entrepreneurship prospects in Iran, respectively.