اثر متغيرهاي كلان اقتصادي بر صادرات غيرنفتي در اقتصاد ايران

The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on the Non-Oil Exports in the Economy of Iran

This research is to determine the effect of macroeconomic variables on non-oil exports, just in the similar way as it has been done for the rate of foreign exchange, rate of inflation and the real rate of GDP during 1350-1380 and also to foresee this effect for the coming years. In this paper three hypotheses and two predictions have been discussed which are as follows: The first hypothesis: The rate of foreign exchange has a direct effect cm non-oil exports. The second hypothesis: The rate of inflation has an inverse effect on non-oil exports. The third hypothesis: the real GDP has a direct effect on non-oil exports. The first prediction {foreseeing): In the long run an increase in GNP causes an increase in non-oil exports. The second prediction (foreseeing): Having noticed the objectives and economic, social, political and cultural development plans of Iran, the most appropriate model which can predict the changes resulted from any one of the variables on the model during the next 10 years, is determinable. In this research one of the unstipulated approach in econometrics has been used. One of the VAR system advantages in the responsibility as against the strike of imposed unit (a standard deviation) from each one of variables of the system. In fact the reflective function acts on the basis of motivated mean process (MA) and on the basis of mathematics model patterns, the forseeing of non-oil export during the next ten years has been achieved. The results in the simple regression models show that during 1971-2001, GDP and foreign exchange rate have had direct effect on the non-oil exports and the rate of inflation on the non-oil exports has been approximately effectless. The results of forseeing during 2001-2012 also show that GDP had no effect on the non-oil exports and in this regard simulating model has been provided, too.