بررسي اثر تقارن اطلاعاتي بر رابطه بين پيش‌بيني سود مديريت و ريسك شركت با استفاده از مدل‌هاي ايستا و پويا

The Effects of Information Symmetry on the Relationship between Management Earnings Forecast and Firm Risk using Static and Dynamic approaches

ﻣﺮوزه ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﻣﺤﯿﻂ اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎ، ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺷﻔﺎﻓﯿﺖ ﺑﺎزار، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ رﯾﺴﮏ ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎ را ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮاه داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮ ﺗﻘﺎرن اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ ﺑﺮ راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﻮد ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و رﯾﺴﮏ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روﯾﮑﺮدﻫﺎي اﯾﺴﺘﺎ و ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﻣﯽﭘﺮدازد. ﺑﺮاي آزﻣﻮن در روﯾﮑﺮد اﯾﺴﺘﺎ از رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﭼﻨﺪﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮه ﺑﺎ آﺛﺎر ﺛﺎﺑﺖ و در روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎ از رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﮔﺸﺘﺎورﻫﺎي ﺗﻌﻤﯿﻢﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ )GMM( اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ ﺑﻪﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮي روش ﺣﺬف ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﺎﺗﯿﮏ، ﺗﻌﺪاد 65 ﺷﺮﮐﺖ از ﻣﯿﺎن ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎي ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﺪ. ﻗﻠﻤﺮوي زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺮاي اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج دادهﻫﺎ، ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1389 ﺗﺎ 1397 و ﺑﺮاي آزﻣﻮن دادهﻫﺎ، 1391 ﺗﺎ 1397 اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ در ﻫﺮدو ﺣﺎﻟﺖ اﯾﺴﺘﺎ و ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﮑﻮس و ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ﺑﯿﻦ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﻮد و رﯾﺴﮏ ﺑﻮده و در ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ ﻗﻮيﺗﺮ، ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﻮد راﺑﻄﻪ ﮐﻢﺗﺮي ﺑﺎ رﯾﺴﮏ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ دارد. ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺑﺮ رﯾﺴﮏ ﻏﯿﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﺎﺗﯿﮏ در روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ روﯾﮑﺮد اﯾﺴﺘﺎ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ اﺳﺖ.

Today, improving the information environment can lead to firm risk reduction by increasing marketchr('39')s transparency. Present study investigates the effect of information environment on the relationship between Management Earnings Forecast and firm risk based on static and dynamic approaches. To test in static approach, Multivariate regression with fixed effects, and in dynamic approach, Generalized Moment of Method (GMM) has been used. Using a systematic elimination method, 65 companies were selected among listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. Time domain research for data extraction, is years 2010 to 2019, and for data testing is 2012 to 2019. Results in both static and dynamic state indicate a reverse and significant relationship between firm risk and management earnings forecast, and in companies with stronger information environments, this relationship is lower. Also, the effect of independent variables on non-systematic risk in the dynamic approach is greater than the static approach.