و همگرايي GMM يكپارگي اقتصادي كشورهاي در حال توسعه كاربرد مدل جاذبه با داده هاي تلفيقي به روش

Economic Integration Among Developing Countries: Applying Panel Data Gravity Equation with Co integration and GMM Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data

In this paper we estimate a panel gravity equation, for a hypothetical free trade arrangement, with import and export ratios, based on a new proof of this equation We find that long run export elasticity with respect to income is greater than that of imports and trade balance will be positive in the long run. After imposing equal elasticity condition in estimation, we find that export and import elasticities, are nearly equal on (1.01I). Export and import ratio terms are also included in the estimation which shows the positive effects of import similarity and third countries export to members on bilateral trade flows. The elasticities of import to foreign exchange reserves and real exchange rate are rather small which points to the fact that only growing productivity could help positive trade balance.