بررسي عوامل كوتاه مدت و بلند مدت تعيين كننده نرخ واقعي ارز در چارچوب سه كالايي مورد مطالعه ايران

The Investigation of Short-run and Long-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in Context of Three-Goods: Case Study of Iran

This article states the main long-run and short-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Iran in both internal and external point of views. Then it presents the same empirical study on the real exchange rate that occurred inside and outside of Iran, and finally an illustrative model is presented to show the main determinants of equilibrium real exchange rate. In order to examine the long-run relationships among the variables of the models, the Engle-Granger test of the co integration, Johansen procedure and Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) are applied. The short-run relationship is studied with vector Error correction model (VECM). The funding is that in the long-run the terms of trade, investment share, central Bank reserves and the openness influence the internal real exchange rate for import in the same direction, while the government consumption influences it in the contrast direction. The internal real exchange rate for export has positive relation with terms of trade and government. Consumption has negative relation with real money supply.