نگراني ها و انتظارات جهان در حال توسعه ، انصاف و جامعيت ، دو اصل براي مذاكرات آينده

Iranian Business Cycles

Business cycles arc repeatable phenomena but they might be different in terms of their domain motion and cycling period. In 1930s, economists attempted to forecast major macro economic variables such as GDP, price levels, unemployment...etc. In this regard, the structure of the combined indicators was watched in particular and econometric techniques were effectively employed in diversifying and expanding such indices. Present paper studies time series of 70 important variables in the Iranian economy relative to GDP. The results advocate that the real oil income and the real imports turning points are several seasons ahead of the GDP in terms of timeliness. At the same time, these variable have upward correlation trend and move in the same dicection. In another phase, a combined index was formed from two leader variables and characteristics of their turning points in the past decades were compared with of GDP. It was asserted that whilst combined indices behaviour is similar to GDP, its turning point is 4025 seasons earlier than the GDPʹs. This phenomenon can be exploited to forecast GDP. Also, sutdy shows that during the past decades, the average stagnation cycles in Iran were 41 month and of booming were 32 months. In other words, booming cycles were consistetly shorter than stagnation cycles and on average, the business cycles of Iran lasted 75 months.