ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﮐﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺎي ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﻣﺴﻠﺤﺎﻧﻪ در ﺷﻬﺮ اﻫﻮاز ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎي ﮐﺮﻧﻞ،ﮐﺮﯾﺠﯿﻨﮓ و ﺑﯿﻀﯽ اﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي 1394ﺗﺎ 1397

Determining the hotspots of an armed robbery in Ahwaz by using the kernel, Kriging and Standard Deviation Ellipse models Between 1394 and 1397

ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﻣﺴﻠﺤﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮏ ﻣﻌﻀﻞ ﺑﺰرگ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ داراي ﺧﺴﯿﺴﻪ ﻣﻠﯽ -اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰم ﻣﺒﺎرزه ﺟﺪي و ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻋﻠﻤﯽ اﺳﺖ؛ ﻟﺬا ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﻤﺎم اﺑﻌﺎد و زواﯾﺎي آن ﺿﺮوري و ﻻزم ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﺪف از اﻧﺠﺎم اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺎي وﻗﻮع ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﻣﺴﻠﺤﺎﻧﻪ در ﺷﻬﺮ اﻫﻮاز ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺳﻪ ﻣﺪل ﺑﯿﻀﯽ اﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎر، ﮐﺮﻧﻞ و ﮐﺮﯾﺠﯿﻨﮓ در ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي1394 ﺗﺎ 1397 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ در دﺳﺘﻪ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي و ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ-ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از اداره آﮔﺎﻫﯽ ﺷﻬﺮ اﻫﻮاز و 17 ﮐﻼﻧﺘﺮي اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ)ﺑﺎ ﺗﺎﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺳﻪ ﻣﺪل( ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﺎﻧﻮنﻫﺎي ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﻣﺴﻠﺤﺎﻧﻪ در ﺳﺎل 1394 در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ 3،2 و 6، در ﺳﺎل 1395 در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ 6، در ﺳﺎل 1396 در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ 6 و4 و در ﺳﺎل1397 در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ 6 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. اﯾﻦ اﻣﺮ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ آن ﺑﻮد ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ 6 ﺷﻬﺮ اﻫﻮاز در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﺎﻧﻮنﻫﺎي وﻗﻮع ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﻣﺴﻠﺤﺎﻧﻪ را در داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و در ﻫﺮ ﭼﻬﺎر ﺳﺎل ﯾﮑﯽ از ﮐﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺎي وﻗﻮع ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﻣﺴﻠﺤﺎﻧﻪ را در ﺧﻮد ﺟﺎي اﺳﺖ.

Armed robbery as a major social problem that can Has a national -security character, Requires a serious fight and scientific research. Thus, the need to study all this aspects and dimensions it is necessary. The aim of this study is determining the hotspots of armed robbery in the Ahvaz city by using three models: standard deviation ellipses, kernel and kriging between the years 1394 to 1397. this research is an Applied and descriptive –Analytical Research. Data for this study were extracted from awareness department Ahvaz and 17 police stations. The research results (With emphasis on Similar results were obtained from three models) show that the Hotspots of armed robbery in 1394 are in Regions 3,2,6 and in1395 is in region 6, in 1396 are in regions 4and6 and in1397 is in region6. This would Showed that Region 6 of Ahwaz in the under review years, had The Highest Hotspot of armed robbery and in every four years, one of the hotspots of armed robbery is in this region.