تقاضاي واردات در اقتصاد ايران با رويكرد نوين

Imports Demand in Iranʹs Economy with a New Approach

This paper studies imports demand on short term and long term basis in the Iranʹs economy based upon cumulative methods of Engel-Granger, Johansen, Veshin sons and Philips-Hensen. Stability parameters are calculated by exploiting Kalman Filter CUSUM and CUSUMQ. The results indicate that the standard theorem of import demand based upon various relative prices and scale variables can not satisfactorily explain imports behavior in the Iranian economy. Therefore, in exchange limitation status, imports demand model is employed to distinct demand equation and analyse its defining factors. The elasticity of long term demand of import accumulation by all different definitions and approaches, as well as by Kalman Filter method is estimated with high degree of precision close to one, although it displays mild periodical behaviour. The elasticity of short term revenue is estimated far greater than one, about 5.7. This indicates that the Iranian economy has been able to adapt for the required structures adjustments in order to diminish its dependency on imports. The estimation of imports price elasticity is not precise and is not stable during the sampling period. Nevertheless, it is expected that coexistence of devaluation policy with trade liberalisation has considerable effects on imports demand. The present paper surveys the mutual influence of production and exports, with emphasize on non-oil exports and its effective factors by employing two-phase minimum square method. The results show that both non-oil exports and GDP have meaningful effects on each other but, the effects of GDP on non-oil exports is much higher. On the other hand, influence of monetary variables such as exchange rates and terms of trade, together with factors such as work, capital assets and imports on non-oil exports are calculated and analyzed as well. The relation and the extent of each variableʹs effects are also defined.