تحليل تجربي تورم در اقتصاد ايران 81-1338

Experimental Analysis of Inflation in Iranian Economy (1959-2002)

Inflation has been the focus of numerous studies in the recent decades, both for developed and under-developing countries. Although there is a general understanding about the consequences of inflation, its causes and cures are still controversial issues amongst economists. None of the two competitive views concerned with developing countries, monetarism and structuralism, provide a wholly successful theoretical model to explain price behavior. This article attempts to suggest a synthesis for more appropriate modelling. To examine the long run relationship between inflation rate and all determinant factors influencing it (during 1959-2002), Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method has been used. The results indicate that output, import price index, liquidity and exchange rate are the variables influential on inflation rate in Iranʹs economy.