نظريه برابري قدرت خريد و ساختار بازار ارز در ايران

Iranʹs past experience demonstrate that the Country has permanently suffered and incurred the cost of mismanagement of exchange rate policy. The exchange rate policy which was undertaken during the First Cultural - Economic Development Plan of Iran, begin with the aim of reinstitutioning and increasing the productivity of the Iranian Exchange market, promotion of non-oil export and access to a better resource allocation, but mismanagement of this policy resulted in nothing but growing inflation and Economic growth retardation. Yet, the determination of a suitable exchange rate remains one of the most important issues in relation to macroeconomic policies in Iran. Recently there has been a wide agreement that the main aim of the exchange rate policies must be such that it results in alignment of the real exchange rate. In relation to the long-run real equilibrium exchange rate, Iranian policymakers should not only be worry about the determination of this key macroeconomic variable, but also they must take into consideration the necessity of the correct determination of exchange rate, given the speed of globalization and growing financial integration. The aim of this article is to test the settlement of PPP in Iran with the consideration of its exchange market structure. Therefore the base theory of PPP is first introduced and the structure of Iranian exchange market is then presented. Further, with the use of unit root tests and cointegration method, the cointegrated vector of prices with the related real exchange rate was specified. Moreover with the use of Johansen & Jesollus Maximum Likelihood test, long run relations is determined and the short run dynamics was identified with the use of vector error correction method. The results and policy recommendation is given in the last section of this article