بررسي تجربي پديه فصلي بودن قيمتها در بازار جهاني گندم

An Applied Study of the Seasonality of Prices in World Wheat Market.

Wheat, as a major grain, is considered as a significant product in household consumption. Study of the wheat price patterns in the world market is of paramount importance, both for exporters and importers of this product. Seasonality of harvest is a genuine phenomenon affecting. the market for agricul tural products. Wheat Market is no exception, as far as seasonality is concerned. This paper is intended to study the various aspects of seasonality in the world wheat Market. Initially the phenomenon of seasonality is introduced, and its impact on the market is monitored and the nature of its interaction with major factors of the market is analysed. Subsequently, a Review of economic literature is presented which includes methods of econometric modeling of this phenomenon. An autoregressive model is presented using the monthly data of 21 years for Nine different varieties of wheat exported from five major producers, namely Argentina, Australia, Canada, European Union, and The United States. Findings of the study in this model indicate the existence of the seasonality pattern in wheat prices and reveal the significance of it in the market clearance procedure through the time. A Statistics) test reveals the non- stationary nature of data, which is in accord with theoretical findings of the study.