بررسي كنشگران، عوامل كليدي و پيشران‌هاي تحولات سياسي– امنيتي يمن

A survey on actors, key factors and drivers of Yemen's political-security transformations

زمينه و هدف: عربستان به بهانه مقابله با جنبش انصارالله يمن، ائتلافي از دولت‌هاي مرتجع منطقه ايجاد كرد و با حمايت كشورهاي غربي اقدام به تهاجم نظامي همه‌جانبه عليه مردم مظلوم يمن و محاصره‌ اين كشور نمود. به اين ترتيب تحولات سياسي يمن جنبه امنيتي پيدا كرد و با پيچيدگي و عدم قطعيت همراه شد. هدف اين تحقيق كه بر اساس اين تحولات شكل گرفت، شناسايي مهم‌ترين كنشگران داخلي، منطقه ­اي و بين‌المللي و عوامل كليدي سياسي، اقتصادي، اجتماعي، فرهنگي، نظامي و پيشران­هاي مؤثر بر تحولات سياسي– امنيتي يمن مي­باشد. روش: پژوهش اين مقاله به لحاظ هدف؛ توسعه‌اي- كاربردي و به لحاظ روش؛ موردي – زمينه‌اي و به لحاظ ماهيت؛ آميخته ميباشد. بر اساس رويكرد سناريونويسي GBN داده‌هاي مورد نياز آن به سه شيوه مطالعات اكتشافي و فيش‌برداري، انجام مصاحبه حضوري با تعداد 20 نفر از خبرگان يمن و در ادامه اخذ نظرات 37 نفر از مديران و مسئولين درگير در حوزه تحولات سياسي – امنيتي يمن با رويكرد تمامشمار با استفاده از پرسشنامه به شيوه نمونه‌گيري هدفمند، جمع‌آوري گرديد و براي تجزيه‌وتحليل داده‌ها از آمار توصيفي و تحليل آماري و يافته‌هاي ميانگين رتبه‌اي خبرگان با آزمون فريدمن با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SPSS استفاده شده است. يافته­ ها و نتيجه­ گيري: يافته‌ها نشان‌دهنده مهم‌ترين كنشگران، عوامل كليدي و پيشران‌هاي مؤثر بر تحولات سياسي - امنيتي يمن از منظر خبرگان است كه مبتني بر آن عدم قطعيت‌هاي بحراني و سناريوهاي پيش­رو قابل استخراج و ارائه است.

Statement of Problem/Objective the Saudi Arabia, under the pretext of returning the Yemeni runaway president, created a coalition of reactionary governments in the region and with the support of Western countries launched a comprehensive military invasion against the revolutionary government and the oppressed people of Yemen and besieged it. In this way, Yemen's political transformations became a security issue on the regional level that is accompanied by complexity and uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important domestic, regional and international actors of Yemen's transformations and its key factors in political, economic, social, cultural, military areas as well as effective drivers on the political-security transformations in this country. Methodology: The study employs developmental and applied method with respect to research's objective and utilizes case-based approach and was based on both quantitative and qualitative research techniques due to the mixed nature of research. According G.B.N approch in scenario planning Data were gathered in three ways: exploratory studies, library note-taking and interview with 20 experts in Yemen's subject and then the views of 37 officials involved in Yemen's political-security transformations with a full-scale approach using questionnaire. Furthermore, targeted sampling method was utilized to theoretical saturation level. Data analysis was done using descriptive statistics and statistical analysis and the mean scores of experts extracted by Friedman test with SPSS software. Findings and results: The findings show that from the 38 actors including domestic, anti-Yemeni coalition, near-regional, distant regional and international the most important actors are Saudi Arabia, Ansarullah, United State of America. Based on the results of the research, the key factors, respectively, include the geopolitical and strategic importance of Yemen for Saudi Arabia and global powers and their support for the coalition, the apparent and hidden support (economic, political, social, and military) of Iran from the Ansarullah and finally the existence of resistance and abidance spirit among the Shiites of Zaidi and the Yemeni revolutionaries. Effective drivers on Yemeni political-security transformations from the expert's perspective, respectively, including the great financial resources of the coalition for political, economic and military confrontation with the Yemeni revolutionaries, the destruction of the main infrastructure in Yemen in order to defeat Ansarullah for the future of Yemen administration, the increase of Yemini news influence in global media and etc., which critical uncertainties and future’s scenarios can be extracted from them to be presented.