بررسي اثرات فعاليت هاي انساني بر روند منابع آب دشت اروميه

Investigation on human activities effects on water resources trend of Urmia Plain

ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ اروﻣﯿﻪ، ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻫﺎي اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﺮ روﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات آبﻫﺎي ﺳﻄﺤﯽ و زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ در دﺷﺖ اروﻣﯿﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺪﯾﻦﻣﻨﻈﻮر، ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس آﻣﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻧﻪ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﯿﺪروﻣﺘﺮي )1357-1390(، اﻃﻼﻋﺎت 74 ﭘﯿﺰوﻣﺘﺮ و ﺗﺼﺎوﯾﺮ ﻣﺎﻫﻮارهاي، ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات دﺑﯽ ورودي و ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ، ﺗﺨﻠﯿﻪ آﺑﺨﻮان و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ در دﺷﺖ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. آزﻣﻮن ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ روﻧﺪ، آزﻣﻮن ﻧﺎﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮي ﻣﻦ-ﮐﻨﺪال ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ اﺛﺮ ﺧﻮدﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﺑﻮد. ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ، روﻧﺪ دﺑﯽ ورودي از ﺳﻤﺖ زﯾﺮﺣﻮﺿﻪﻫﺎي ﻧﺎزﻟﻮﭼﺎي، روﺿﻪﭼﺎي و ﺑﺎراﻧﺪوزﭼﺎي ﺑﻪ دﺷﺖ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺸﯽ ﺑﻮده، روﻧﺪ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ دﺑﯽ ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ از زﯾﺮﺣﻮﺿﻪﻫﺎي روﺿﻪﭼﺎي، ﺷﻬﺮﭼﺎي و ﺑﺎراﻧﺪوزﭼﺎي در ﺳﻄﺢ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن 95 درﺻﺪ ﻣﻌﻨﯽدار ﺑﻮد. ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ دو دوره ﻗﺒﻞ و ﺑﻌﺪ از ﺳﺎل 1374 )ﺳﺎل ﺷﺮوع ﺧﺸﮏ ﺷﺪن درﯾﺎﭼﻪ( ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در ﻫﻤﻪ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎهﻫﺎ ﺟﺰ ﻗﺎﺳﻤﻠﻮ، اﺧﺘﻼف ﻣﻌﻨﯽدار ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ دﺑﯽ در ﻃﯽ اﯾﻦ دو دوره وﺟﻮد دارد. ﻣﻘﺪار آﻣﺎره )2/18-Z=( ﻧﺸﺎندﻫﻨﺪه روﻧﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺸﯽ ﻣﻌﻨﯽدار در ﺳﻄﺢ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن 95 درﺻﺪ ﺑﺮاي ﺣﺠﻢ ﺗﺠﻤﻌﯽ ﺗﺨﻠﯿﻪ ﻣﺨﺰن آﺑﺨﻮان ﺑﻮد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﺬﮐﻮر ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﺗﺨﻠﯿﻪﺷﺪه ﺑﻪ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ اروﻣﯿﻪ در ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ ﻓﺼﻮل داراي روﻧﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺸﯽ ﻃﯽ ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﻮده، ﺑﺎﯾﺪ اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﺟﺪي ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﭘﺬﯾﺮد

Considering the importance of Lake Urmia, the purpose of this research is to survive the human activates on the trend of surface water and groundwater changes in the Urmia plain. For this purpose, the changes in input and output discharge, aquifer drainage and land use changes in the Urmia Plain were studied on the basis of nine hydrometric stations data (during 1973-1903) and information of 74 piezometers and using satellite images. The test used for trend analysis was Mann-Kendall nonparametric test with considering the effect of autocorrelation. According to the results, the trend of input discharge from the Nazlou-Chay, Rouzh-Chay and Barandoz-Chay sub-basins to the Urmia Plain was decreasing and the negative trend of outlet discharge related to the Rouzh-Chay, Shahr-Chay and Barandoz-Chay sub-basins was significant at 95% confidence level. Comparison of the results the difference between discharge average during after and before 1995 (the year which in it the lake begins to dry) showed that at all stations except Ghassemlou, there is a significant difference between average discharge during these two periods. The value of the statistic (Z = -2.18) indicates a significant decreasing trend at 95% confidence level for the drainage volume of the aquifer reservoir. The results of this study showed that discharge to Lake Urmia in all seasons had a decreasing trend during the studied period and serious actions should be done to manage water resources in the region.