تحليل مكاني و ارزيابي آسيب پذيري خشكسالي كشاورزي در مناطق خشك، مطالعه موردي: حوزه آبخيز پيشكوه استان يزد

Spatial Analysis and Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in Arid Regions(Case Study: Pishkouh Watershed, Yazd Province

دردﻫﻪﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ از ﻣﯿﺎن ﺣﻮادث ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ، ﻓﺮاواﻧﯽ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺑﻼﯾﺎي ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ روش ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ، ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﻧﮕﺮ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﭘﯿﺸﮑﻮه اﺳﺘﺎن ﯾﺰد ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، اﺑﺘﺪا ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار در آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ، ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻻﯾﻪ ﻫﺎي اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ ﺷﺪ و ﭘﺲ از وزن دﻫﯽ ﻻﯾﻪ ﻫﺎ از ﻟﺤﺎظ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ در آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮي ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﻌﯿﺎره )MCDM(، ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﻪ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ )GIS( ﺗﻠﻔﯿﻖ و ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﮐﻨﺘﺮل، ﭘﺎﯾﺶ و دﻗﺖ ﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ، از ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ ﻣﺤﺪوده ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ ﮐﻤﮏ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ وزن ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺛﺮ در آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮ ﺑﺎرش ﮐﻪ ﻣﻘﺪار آن ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺑﺎ 0/31 و ﮐﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ وزن ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺷﯿﺐ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺪار 0/05 اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺳﺎﻧﯿﭻ، درهﺷﯿﺮ، درهﺳﯿﺮ، اﺷﮑﻔﺖ، ﻣﻮرك و ... ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﮐﻪ از ﻧﻈﺮ ژﺋﻮﻣﻮرﻓﻮﻟﻮژي ﺟﺰء ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ و ﮐﻮﻫﺴﺘﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎر ﻣﯽ روﻧﺪ، ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ دﺷﺘﯽ، ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ ﻋﻤﻖ ﮐﻢ رﺳﻮﺑﺎت، ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺧﺎك درﺷﺖداﻧﻪﺗﺮ و ﻫﻮاﺑﯿﻦ ﺑﻮدن ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آﺑﯽ )ﻗﻨﻮات(، ﻋﻤﺪﺗﺎً آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي آنﻫﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ وﻗﻮع ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ، ﺷﺪﯾﺪﺗﺮ و از ﻧﻈﺮ زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﺮﯾﻊ ﺗﺮ و ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎرﺗﯽ در ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت دﭼﺎر ﺧﺴﺎرات ﻣﺘﻌﺪدي ﻣﯽﺷﻮﻧﺪ. در ﺣﺎﻟﯽﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻘﯽ ﻧﻈﯿﺮ اﺳﻼﻣﯿﻪ، ﻧﺼﺮآﺑﺎد، ﻣﺰرﻋﻪآﺧﻮﻧﺪ، ﻫﻤﺖآﺑﺎد و ... در درﺟﻪ ﭘﺎﺋﯿﻦﺗﺮي از آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻗﺮار دارﻧﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ، ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺑﺮآورد ﺷﺪه در ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ، ﻫﻤﺴﻮ ﺑﺎ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻟﺬا، ﻧﻘﺸﻪ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي، از دﻗﺖ و ﺻﺤﺖ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮل و ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ

In recent decades, among natural disasters, the frequency of agricultural drought has been higher than other natural disasters. The best way to management of agricultural drought was to management drought-stricken society. The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability and spatial analysis of drought in Pishkuh watershed in Yazd province. the effective parameters in the vulnerability of agricultural drought in the region became information layers, and after weighting the layers in terms of the importance of agricultural drought vulnerability in the framework of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) Agricultural drought in the study area was prepared. In order to control, monitoring and evaluation the final map, field studies of the study area were also used. The results showed that the highest weight of the effective parameters in drought vulnerability was related to the precipitation parameter, the value of which is equal to 0.31, and the lowest weight was related to the slope parameter with a value of 0.05. According to the obtained results, the most vulnerable agricultural droughts were related to Sanich, Darashir, Darasir, Eshkaft, Morok, etc. Geomorphologically, these areas were considered to be high and mountainous, more severe than plain areas due to the low depth of sediments, coarse-grained soil texture and aquatic resources (Qanats), mainly their vulnerability to drought, and In terms of time, they suffer more quickly, in other words, they suffer a lot of damage in the short term. While areas such as Islamia, Nasrabad, Mazrea Akhund, Hemmatabad , etc. were in a lower degree of agricultural drought damage. The results indicate that the degree of damage to agricultural drought estimated in the final map is in line with the findings of field studies. Therefore, the map of agricultural drought vulnerability has acceptable and desirable accuracy.