ارتباط متقابل توليدات كشاورزي و شاخص‌هاي محيط زيستي با تأكيد بر تغييرات اقليمي

The relationship between agricultural production and environmental indices with emphasis on climate change

ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﮐﻤﯽ آﺛﺎر ﻣﺨﺮب ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ و ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﺎورزي از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ زﯾﺎدي در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و ﻫﻮاﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ راﺑﻄﻪ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر دي اﮐﺴﯿﺪ ﮐﺮﺑﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﺨﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ و ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺮﺧﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎزﻫﺎي ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪ اي ﺑﺎ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪات ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از داده ﻫﺎي ﭘﺎﻧﻞ 31 اﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﺸﻮر ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي 1360 ﺗﺎ 1397 ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻣﺪل )Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺷﺪن ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻣﺠﺬور ارزش اﻓﺰوده ﮐﺸﺎورزي در ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪت و ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ 0/027- و 0/312-، ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﯽ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﮐﻮزﻧﺘﺲ )EKC( در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي در ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﭘﺎﻧﻞ اﺳﺘﺎن ﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﻮر ﺗﺄﯾﯿﺪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ، ﺣﺪود 90 درﺻﺪ آﺛﺎر ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﺷﻮك ﻫﺎي اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯽ در ﻃﯽ ﯾﮏ دوره ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﺻﻼح ﺑﻮده و در ﮐﻤﺘﺮ از دو دوره اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎدل ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪت ﺧﻮد ﺑﺎزﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﮔﺸﺖ. ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺑﺎرش و دﻣﺎ ﺑﺮ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎزﻫﺎي ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪ اي ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ 0/038 و 0/302- ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن از ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ ﮐﻤﯿﺖ دارد. ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ دﻣﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن از ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ و ﺗﻮان دوم ﺑﺎرش ﻧﺸﺎن از ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ دارد. ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﺑﺮﻫﻤﮑﻨﺶ اﻟﮕﻮي ﮐﺸﺖ، اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺎﺷﯿﻦ آﻻت و ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪات ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ارزش اﻓﺰوده آن ﻫﺎ ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد.

Quantification of the adverse effects of climatic and environmental indices on agricultural production is quite important in agrometeorology and economics sciences. The aim of current study is to investigate the interaction carbon dioxide emissions, as an indicator of environmental degradation, and crop production. For this purpose, panel data for 31 provinces of Iran during the period of 1977-2018 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model were applied. Based on the statistical analysis, the negative coefficient of agricultural value added term in long and short term periods, i.e. -0.027 and -0.312, respectively, the Kuznets environmental curve (EKC) hypothesis was confirmed in the agricultural sector of study regions. The results showed that, almost 90% of the agricultural production shocks might be mitigated over one period (e.g. growing season) and will return to their long-term equilibrium levels in less than two periods. The coefficients of precipitation and temperature terms in greenhouse gas emissions equation were determined -0.038 and -0.302 respectively, indicating the significant impact of climatic variables on emission. Further studies on interaction of copping pattern and machinery utilization on emission and agricultural production are recommended.