كليدواژه :
اميد اجتماعي , آينده پژوهي , پروبلماتيك , تحليل محتواي عرفي
چكيده فارسي :
اميد اجتماعي، مفهومي مهجور در علوم اجتماعي است كه به نظر مي‌رسد به‌تازگي و به‌علت واقعيت‌هاي اجتماعي امروز ايران، برخي انديشمندان و دغدغه‌مندان به آن توجه كرده‌اند؛ بنابراين، پروبلماتيك‌شدن اميد اجتماعي در ايران، معلول شرايط امروز جامعۀ ايراني است. به‌غير از اين شرايط، مقالۀ حاضر به‌مثابه پژوهشي توسعه‌اي، كه در سنّت پژوهش‌هاي كيفي و با استفاده از روش تحليل محتواي عرفي انجام شده است، به دنبال كشف مضامين بنيادينِ مسئله‌مندشدن مقولۀ اميد اجتماعي در گفتار و نوشتار انديشمندان ايراني معاصر است و قصد دارد خوانشي آينده‌پژوهانه از اين مضامين ارائه دهد. بدين‌منظور، بيشتر از 1200 صفحه، متن نوشتارها و گفتگوهاي صاحب‌نظران ايراني پيرامون مسئلۀ اميد اجتماعي به‌عنوان منبع داده، تحليل شد و درنهايت، 21 محتواي كليدي استخراج و بعد از تجزيه‌وتحليل، ادغام و هم‌پوشاني مضامين اوليه، درنهايت، 5 مضمون يا موضوع اصلي شناسايي شد. اين مضامين، كه به‌ترتيب، 1. اميد اجتماعي به‌مثابه امر مشترك، 2. افسون و افسانه‌زدايي از اميد اجتماعي، 3. آينده‌ها، 4. عامليت و 5. دوگانۀ خير و شرِ حاكميت نام‌گذاري شد، عمده‌ترين مؤلفه‌هاي اميد اجتماعي است. درنهايت نيز تحليلي آينده‌پژوهانه از اين مضامين ارائه شد.
چكيده لاتين :
One of the most important goals of future studies is to draw positive images of the future and motivate people in society to change to achieve those images. But these images do not form suddenly, several cultural, social, economic, political, and psychological factors are influential in their formation and as long as the people of the society do not hope for the realization of a better society in line with the images made, they will not take steps to draw and realize them. Positive and optimistic collective images are necessary but not enough to achieve a better situation in the future. We need something beyond merely positive images of the future to ensure movement and commitment to change the current situation for the better, and that is social hope. Social hope is one of the most important future-oriented emotions that should be studied because the health and dynamism of a society depend on the level of hope of most members of that society. At the social level, the more people hope for the transformation of the society, the greater their participation in building the future of that society will be. By this hope, all individual and collective capacities to change future growth and are used together to build a better society. In the meantime, hope has been less studied from a social perspective. Even globally, very few studies have addressed the issue of social hope, and most of the studies conducted are merely philosophical views of hope that have been published in the form of books. The anonymity of social hope as a subject of research on the one hand and the need to address it, especially in the turbulent years that Iranian society is going through, on the other hand, are the main ideas of the present study. This study is a scientific attempt to investigate the problematization of social hope among contemporary Iranian scholars. Also, the irreplaceable importance of hope in futures studies as an interdisciplinary shows the epistemological and methodological aspects of this research.
