اشتغال و تحليل اثرپذيري آن از بهبود فضاي كسب‌و‌كار با تاكيد بر طبقه درآمدي و برخورداري از منابع سوختي

Employment and EDB with Emphasis on Income Categoryand Fuel Resources

ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﻓﻀﺎي ﮐﺴﺐ و ﮐﺎر از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي ﻣﻬﻢ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻫﺮ ﮐﺸﻮر اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺿﻤﻦ اﺛﺮ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﺑﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﻨﮕﺎهﻫﺎ، ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ از ﮐﺎﻧﺎل ارﺗﻘﺎي ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ، رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ، در ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ اﺷﺘﻐﺎل ﻣﻮﺛﺮ واﻗﻊ ﺷﻮد. ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ- ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ و ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮏ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺳﻨﺠﯽ دادهﻫﺎي ﺗﺎﺑﻠﻮﯾﯽ ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﮐﺴﺐ و ﮐﺎر ﺑﺮ اﺷﺘﻐﺎل در 140 ﮐﺸﻮر ﺟﻬﺎن ﻃﯽ دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 2005 ﺗﺎ 2018 اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ در ﮐﻨﺎر ﺗﺼﺮﯾﺢ ﯾﮏ اﻟﮕﻮي ﭘﺎﯾﻪ در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ 4 ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﺮ وﯾﮋﮔﯽ ﮔﺮوهﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﻧﻈﯿﺮ ﻃﺒﻘﻪ درآﻣﺪي و ﺻﺎدرﮐﻨﻨﺪﮔﯽ ﺳﻮﺧﺖ ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻒ دادهﻫﺎ ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ در ﻣﺠﻤﻮع، روﻧﺪ ﺣﺮﮐﺘﯽ رﺷﺪ در اﺷﺘﻐﺎل و ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺖ ﮐﺴﺐ و ﮐﺎر، روﻧﺪي ﻫﻤﺴﻮ و ﮐﺎﻫﺸﯽ اﺳﺖ. در ﺗﻔﮑﯿﮏ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان، ﺑﻄﻮر دﻗﯿﻖ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﺑﯿﻦ دو ﻋﺎﻣﻞ دﯾﺪه ﻧﻤﯽﺷﻮد و ﻧﻤﯽﺗﻮان ﺑﻄﻮر دﻗﯿﻖ ﺑﺮاي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان راﺑﻄﻪاي ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ و ﯾﺎ ﻏﯿﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﺑﯿﻦ دو ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﺷﺘﻐﺎل و ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺖ ﮐﺴﺐ و ﮐﺎر اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج ﻧﻤﻮد. ﻫﻢﭼﻨﯿﻦ در ﺗﻔﮑﯿﮏ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس وﯾﮋﮔﯽﻫﺎي ﺻﺎدرﮐﻨﻨﺪﮔﯽ ﺳﻮﺧﺖ و ﻋﻀﻮﯾﺖ در اوﭘﮏ، در ﻫﺮ دو ﮔﺮوه از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ، ﺳﻄﺢ ﻧﺮخ رﺷﺪ اﺷﺘﻐﺎل و ﻧﺮخ رﺷﺪ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺖ ﮐﺴﺐ و ﮐﺎر ﺑﺰرﮔﺘﺮ از ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺑﺮآورد اﻟﮕﻮي ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺖ ﮐﺴﺐ و ﮐﺎر، ﻧﺮخ ﻣﺸﺎرﮐﺖ و ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖﻫﺎ اﺛﺮي ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﺮ اﺷﺘﻐﺎل دارﻧﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺑﺮآورد ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ، در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ درآﻣﺪ ﺑﺎﻻ، اﻧﺪازه اﺛﺮﮔﺬاري ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺖ ﮐﺴﺐ و ﮐﺎر ﺑﺮ ﮐﺴﺐ و ﮐﺎر ﺗﻔﺎوت ﻣﻌﻨﺎداري از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ درآﻣﺪ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ و ﺑﻪ ﺗﺒﻊ آن از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ درآﻣﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ دارد. دوم، اﺛﺮ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺖ ﮐﺴﺐ و ﮐﺎر ﺑﺮ اﺷﺘﻐﺎل در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان ﺗﻔﺎوت ﻣﻌﻨﺎداري ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﻧﺪارد. ﺳﻮم، اﻧﺪازه اﺛﺮﮔﺬاري در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺻﺎدرﮐﻨﻨﺪه ﺳﻮﺧﺖ و ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻋﻀﻮ اوﭘﮏ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﻣﻌﻨﺎداري ﺑﺰرﮔﺘﺮ از ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ اﺳﺖ.

Improvement in Ease of Doing Business (EDB) is one of the key indicators of economy of each country, having favorable effects on the economic performance of firms and can be effective in determining employment levels through of increasing in production, economic growth, and foreign direct investment. The present study uses both of analytical-descriptive and panel data method to investigate the role of improvement in EDB index on employment in 140 selected countries over the period of 2005 to 2018. In this regard, a basic model has been specified and has focused on the characteristics of countries such as income category and fuel export in four scenarios. The results of data descriptions show that growth in employment and EDB is in line with a decreasing trend. There is no direct relationship between the two factors in separating countries based on the Iranian economy and it is not possible to infer precisely a direct or indirect relationship between employment and EDB for the Iranian economy. Furthermore, in terms of fuel export and OPEC membership characteristics in both groups of countries, the growth of employment rate and the EDB, are higher than other countries. The results of the basic model estimation indicate that EDB, participation rates, and prices have a positive effect on employment. The results of the scenario estimation show that, first, the magnitude of the impact of the EDB on employment in the high-income countries is significantly different from low and middle-income countries. Second, the effect of EDB on employment in the Iranian economy is not significantly different from other countries. Third, the impact of the EDB in fuel exporting countries and OPEC countries is significantly greater than other countries.