نقش درآمدهاي نفتي و اعتبارات بانكي با تأكيد بر حاكميت سياست‌هاي پولي در بخش توليد ايران با رهيافت يك مدل DSGE

The Role of Banking Sector Credits With Emphasis on the Role of Monetary Policies and Oil Revenues in Iranian Economy with DSGE Model

اين ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﻘﺶ درآﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘﯽ و اﻋﺘﺒﺎرات ﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﺎﻧﮑﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﭘﻮﻟﯽ در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان را در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﮏ ﻣﺪل ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﭘﻮﯾﺎي ﺗﺼﺎدﻓﯽ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮارداده اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ از دادهﻫﺎي واﻗﻌﯽ ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻓﺼﻠﯽ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ دوره 1375ﺗﺎ 1396 و ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﻓﺼﻠﯽ ﺷﺪه ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻓﯿﻠﺘﺮ ﻫﺪرﯾﮏ- ﭘﺮوﺳﮑﺎت روﻧﺪ زداﯾﯽ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪهاﻧﺪ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده و ﺑﺮاي اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺪل ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ از روش ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﺑﺘﺪا ﻣﺪل ﺗﺼﺮﯾﺢ و ﻣﻌﺎدﻻت ﻫﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﻧﯽ ﻧﻈﺮي و ﺑﺮﺧﯽ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪﻧﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻫﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﺎ ﺣﻞ ﻣﻌﺎدﻻت آن اﻧﺠﺎم و ﻣﺪل ﻣﻮردﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس واﻗﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﯾﺮان ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﻣﺪل ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزيﺷﺪه ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ ﮔﺸﺘﺎورﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ، ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮازش واﻗﻊ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﻣﺆﯾﺪ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﯿﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﯽ ﻣﺪل ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه ﺑﺎ واﻗﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻢﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ ﻋﮑﺲاﻟﻌﻤﻞ آﻧﯽ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺷﻮك درآﻣﺪ ﻧﻔﺘﯽ دوﻟﺖ ﺑﺮ روي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﮑﺎﯾﺖ از آن داﺷﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻫﺮﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺷﻮك ﻣﺜﺒﺖ درآﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘﯽ دوﻟﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و ﺗﻮرم را ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﻣﻮاﻓﻖ ﺑﺎ اﻧﺘﻈﺎرات ﺗﺌﻮرﯾﮏ و واﻗﻌﯿﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﮐﺸﻮر ﻫﺴﺖ.

This study discussed the role of oil revenues and banking sector credits with an emphasis on monetary policy in Iran's economy in the form of a dynamic dynamic equilibrium model. In this study was used real seasonal per capita data for the period of 1996 to 2017 and the seasonal adjustment utilized by the Hadrik-Proskat filter and Calibration method to extract the parameters of the general equilibrium model. For this purpose, first, the model of justification and the equations of each section were explained based on theoretical foundations and some previous studies. Then optimization of each section was done by solving its equations and the model was simulated based on the economic realities of Iran and subsequently, the simulated model was fitted with the help of variables moments that the results confirm the relative success of the simulated model with the realities of Iran's economy. Also, the immediate response to the government's oil revenue shock on variables was examined, The results showed that any positive shocks to government oil revenues increase production and inflation that the results are in line with the theoretical expectations and economic realities of the country.