كليدواژه :
Drought Analysis , Z-score , Percent of Normal Precipitation , Stochastic Climatic Modeling , SARIMA Model , Climatic Variability , تجزيه و تحليل خشكسالي , درصد از بارش نرمال , تغييرات اقليمي , جغرافيا , مياندوآب , Sanandaj , Miandoab , مدلهاي تصادفي , مدل ساريما
چكيده لاتين :
The main purpose of this research is predicting and analyzing precipitation in Sanandaj and Miandoab stations. First the data obtained from these stations were analysed by drought indexes (Z-score, percent of normal precipitation).
The results of the analyses show that weak and sever drought had the maximum and minimum frequncy. Variation of precipitation during 1961 through 2001 was examined using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). For each station an stochastic model was developed and the future values were estimated. According to the estimated sums, the wet years in each of the stations were determined.
The innovation variance and F-test were applied for detecting the variability. The results of these tests did not show any dominant and widespread climatic change.
