كاربرد مدل‌هاي تجزيه در شكاف مخارج مصرف انرژي خانوارهاي ايران

Application of Decomposition Models in Energy Consumption Gaps of Iranian Households

ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﻧﮕﯽ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺳﻬﻢ را در ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﮐﺸﻮر دارد، ﺑﺮ ﻫﻤﯿﻦ اﺳﺎس ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺷﻮاﻫﺪ داده ﻫﺎي در ﺳﻄﺢ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺑﺮاي دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1387 ﺗﺎ 1395 ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي اﻧﺮژي ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ و ﺑﺮآورد ﺳﻬﻢ ﺟﺰء ﻧﺎﮐﺎرا در ﺷﮑﺎف ﻣﺨﺎرج اﻧﺮژي ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از رﻫﯿﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ ﻣﯽ ﭘﺮدازد. ﺷﻮاﻫﺪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ درآﻣﺪ، ﺗﺤﺼﯿﻼت ﺳﺮﭘﺮﺳﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار و ﺷﻬﺮﻧﺸﯿﻨﯽ اﺛﺮ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ و زﯾﺮﺑﻨﺎي ﻣﺴﮑﻦ اﺛﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﻣﻌﻨﺎداري را ﺑﺮ ﺳﻬﻢ ﻣﺨﺎرج اﻧﺮژي ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ از ﮐﻞ ﻣﺨﺎرج دارد. ﺷﻮاﻫﺪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ اﮐﺴﺎﮐﺎ - ﺑﻠﯿﻨﺪر ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺳﻬﻢ ﺟﺰء ﻧﺎﮐﺎراي ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي در ﺗﻔﺎوت ﻣﺨﺎرج اﻧﺮژي ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ در ﺳﺎل 1387 ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺑﺎ 90/4 درﺻﺪ و در ﺳﺎل 1395 ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺑﺎ 84/5 درﺻﺪ اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ ﻣﺎﭼﺎدو - ﻣﺘﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ در ﭼﻨﺪك ﭘﻨﺠﻢ، ﺳﻬﻢ ﺟﺰء ﮐﺎرا از ﻣﻘﺪار 1/16 در ﺳﺎل 1387 ﺑﻪ 3/05 درﺻﺪ در ﺳﺎل 1395 اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ، اﻣﺎ در ﭼﻨﺪك ﻧﻮدم ﺳﻬﻢ ﺟﺰء ﮐﺎرا از ﻣﻘﺪار 15/48 درﺻﺪ در ﺳﺎل 1387 ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺪار 22/22 درﺻﺪ در ﺳﺎل 1395 اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺰاﯾﯽ را در ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﻧﮕﯽ اﯾﻔﺎ ﮐﻨﺪ.

The home sector has the largest share in the country's energy consumption, therefore, the present study tries to investigate the factors affecting the energy demand and the estimation of the deficient component in the energy expenditure gap of households using the approach of decomposition model by gathering data from families between 2008 and 2016. The result shows that income, education of householders, and urbanization have a negative influence, and the housing foundation has a positive and significant effect on the share of family energy expenditure. Evidence from the analysis of Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition shows that the contribution of the deficient component in energy expenditure on total energy expenditure was 90. 4 and 84. 5 in 2008 and 2016, respectively. The outcome of meta-analysis reveals that in the fifth quantile, the share of the efficient component had been increased from 1. 16 percent in 2008 to 3. 05 percent in 2008, however, in the ninetyish quantile the contributions of the efficient component reached 22. 22 in 2016 from 15. 48 in 2008. So, efficiency improvement in energy consumption of households can play an important role in reducing energy consumption of households.