بررسي تابع تقاضاي گاز طبيعي در بخش خانگي استان خوزستان: رويكرد تابع تقاضاي تقريباً ايده‌آل

Investigating the Natural Gas Demand Function in the Home Sector of Khuzestan Province: An Almost Ideal Demand System

ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ دارا ﺑﻮدن ﻣﺰﯾﺖ ﻫﺎي زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ در ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺬاري ﻫﺎي ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه وﯾﮋه اي ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺣﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﺎي اﻧﺮژي دارد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ در ﺑﯿﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺼﺮف ﮐﻨﻨﺪه اﻧﺮژي در ﮐﺸﻮر، ﺳﻬﻢ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﻧﮕﯽ از ﻣﺼﺮف ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎً اﯾﺪه آل ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر از داده ﻫﺎي اﺳﺘﺎن ﺧﻮزﺳﺘﺎن در ﻃﯽ دوره 1367 ﺗﺎ 1397 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده و ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﮏ روش رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﻫﺎي ﺑﻪ ﻇﺎﻫﺮ ﻧﺎﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺗﺨﻤﯿﻦ ﻣﻌﺎدﻻت اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ. ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﮐﺸﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺧﻮد ﻗﯿﻤﺘﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﻣﻘﯿﺪ و ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻘﯿﺪ ﻧﺸﺎن داد، ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ اﯾﻦ ﮐﺸﺶ ﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺑﻮدﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮري ﮐﻪ در ﻣﺪل ﻣﻘﯿﺪ و ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻘﯿﺪ ﻣﻘﺪار ﮐﺸﺶ ﺧﻮدﻗﯿﻤﺘﯽ ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ 0/92- و 0/9- ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﮐﺸﺶ درآﻣﺪي ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ در ﻣﺪل ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻘﯿﺪ و ﻣﻘﯿﺪ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 0/9608 و 0/9613 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ در ﺳﺒﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﮐﺎﻻﯾﯽ ﺿﺮوري ﻣﺤﺴﻮب ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد .

Natural gas has a special place in relation to other energy carriers due to its environmental advantages in energy consumption policies. Also, among the various energy consuming sectors in the country, the share of the domestic sector in natural gas consumption is higher than that of other sectors. The aim of this study was to investigate the function of natural gas demand using an almost ideal demand system. For this purpose, the data of Khuzestan province during the period of 1988-2018 were used and the equations were estimated with the help of seemingly unrelated regression methods. The Calculation of intrinsic price elasticities using constrained and non-constrained models showed that all these elasticities were negative. So that in the constrained and non -constrained model, the intrinsic price elasticity of natural gas is 0.92 and 0.9. Also, the study of natural gas income elasticity in the non -constrained and constrained models is positive and 0.9608 and 0.9613, respectively, and indicates that natural gas is an essential commodity in the basket of Khuzestan households