تأثير مصرف انرژي‌هاي تجديدپذير بر رشد اقتصادي كشورهاي منتخب منطقه منا: كاربرد مدل خود رگرسيون برداري پانل (Panel VAR)

The Effect of Renewable Energy Consumption on the Economic Growth of Selected Countries in the MENA Region: Application of the Panel Vector Autoregressive Model (Panel VAR)

اﻧﺮژي ﻫﻤﻮاره ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻣﻬﻤﯽ در زﻧﺪﮔﯽ اﻧﺴﺎن ﻫﺎ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي را ﻧﯿﺰ در ﮐﻨﺎر ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ رﺷﺪ، اﻣﮑﺎن ﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ. اﻣﺮوزه ﺑﺴﯿﺎري از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﺗﻼش ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاري در ﻓﻨﺎوري ﻫﺎي ﺟﺪﯾﺪ، ﺑﺘﻮاﻧﻨﺪ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ اﻧﺮژي ﺧﻮرﺷﯿﺪي، اﻧﺮژي ﺑﺎدي ﯾﺎ اﻧﺮژي آب ﮐﻪ در ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﻓﺴﯿﻠﯽ آﻟﻮدﮔﯽ زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﮐﻤﺘﺮي را ﺑﺮ ﺟﺎي ﻣﯽ ﮔﺬارﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻌﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ اﻧﺮژي ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﺧﻮد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮐﻨﻨﺪ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﯿﺰان اﺛﺮﭘﺬﯾﺮي رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻨﺎ از ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﺧﻮد رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﺑﺮداري ﭘﺎﻧﻞ در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1990-2015 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن داده اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﮐﻞ اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺷﺪه از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺳﻬﻢ را در ﺗﻮﺿﯿﺢ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ داﺷﺘﻪ و ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻮﺿﯿﺢ دﻫﻨﺪﮔﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﺑﻪ 56 درﺻﺪ رﺳﯿﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﺮ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻣﯽ ﻃﻠﺒﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮاي دﺳﺘﯿﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﺎﻻي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و رﻓﺎه اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﮕﺬاري ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﯽ ﺑﺮاي آن اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺷﻮد. در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ اﻋﻄﺎي ﻣﺸﻮق ﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ، اﯾﺠﺎد ﺑﺴﺘﺮ و ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ در ﮐﺸﻮر و اﯾﺠﺎد ﺻﻨﺪوق ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ از اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ دوﻟﺖ، ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ راﻫﮕﺸﺎ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.

Energy has always played a very important role in human life and is one of the factors that can make economic growth possible. Today, many countries are struggling to invest in new technologies by using renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy, or water energy as their needed sources of energy, which, as compared to fossil fuels, generate lower environmental pollution. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the economic growth of the selected countries of the MENA region from renewable energy sources using the Panel Vector Autoregressive Model in the period of 1990-2015. The results of the study showed that the variable of the total energy produced from renewable sources has the largest share in explaining the changes in the economic growth of the countries under study and its explanatory value reaches 56% in the long run. Given the significant impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth, suitable policies for renewable energy are needed to achieve a high level of production and social welfare. In this regard, granting financial incentives, establishing a fund for renewable energy by the government, and creating conditions for developing the renewable energy industry in the country could be solutions