اثر قيمت گازطبيعي بر تاب‌آوري سيستم گازرساني ايران

The Effect of Gas Price on the Resilience of the Gas Distribution System in Iran

روﻧﺪ ﺻﻌﻮدي ﻣﺼﺮف ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ در اﺛﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﮔﺎزرﺳﺎﻧﯽ ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ، ﺿﺮورت ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﺎب آوري ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ را ﺑﯿﺶ از ﭘﯿﺶ ﻣﺤﺴﻮس ﻣﯽ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ. ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮ آزادﺳﺎزي ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب اﺟﺮاي ﻗﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪي ﯾﺎراﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ، ﺑﺮ ﺗﺎب آوري ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮔﺎزرﺳﺎﻧﯽ در اﯾﺮان اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻨﺠﺶ ﺗﺎب آوري ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ، در ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ، ﺑﺰرگ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﻤﺎي ﻟﯿﺎﭘﺎﻧﻮف ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش روزن اﺷﺘﺎﯾﻦ، ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻣﺼﺮف ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﻧﮕﯽ ﻃﯽ دوره 1384 ﺗﺎ 1396 ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺮدد. در ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮي روش ﻫﻢ اﻧﺒﺎﺷﺘﮕﯽ ﯾﻮﻫﺎﻧﺴﻦ - ﯾﻮﺳﻠﯿﻮس و ﻣﺪل ﺗﺼﺤﯿﺢ ﺧﻄﺎي ﺑﺮداري )VECM( رواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺎب آوري ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮔﺎزرﺳﺎﻧﯽ اﯾﺮان ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽ ﮔﯿﺮد. ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺪل، ﻫﺮﭼﻨﺪ ﻗﺒﻞ از اﺟﺮاي ﻗﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪي ﯾﺎراﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ، ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺎب آوري ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮔﺎزرﺳﺎﻧﯽ اﺛﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ، ﻟﯿﮑﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ از اﺟﺮاي ﻗﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪي ﯾﺎراﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ، ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ آن ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ اﻣﺮ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ واﻗﻌﯽ ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ در اﺛﺮ ﺗﻮرم و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ ﻧﺮخ ارز در ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي ﺑﻌﺪ از اﺟﺮاﯾﯽ ﺷﺪن ﻗﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪي ﯾﺎراﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.

The upward trend of natural gas consumption as a result of gas supply development in recent years necessitates the need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system more than ever. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of natural gas price liberalization on the resumption of the gas supply system in Iran. In order to measure the fluctuation of the natural gas distribution system, in the first stage, Lyapunov's view was calculated by using the Rosen-Einstein method, based on the consumption of natural gas in the household sector during the period from 2005 to 2018. In the next step, by using the Johansen-Uuselus Coincidence Method and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the relationship between the price of natural gas and the volatility of the Iranian gas distribution system has been investigated. According to the results of the model, the price of natural gas after the law enforcement of subsidies has led to a reduction in the resilience of the gas supply system; however, before implementing the targeted subsidy policy, the natural gas price has a positive resilience on gas distribution system fluctuations. This could be resulted from the real fall in natural gas prices due to inflation and a sharp increase in the exchange rate in the years after the targeted subsidy law came into force.