ارزيابي اثرات تغيير اقليم بر منابع آب سطحي تجديدپذير سي حوضة آبريز كشور

در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻫﺎي ﺳﻄﺤﯽ ﺳﯽ ﺣﻮﺿﮥ آﺑﺮﯾﺰ اﯾﺮان ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﯿﻢ ﻗﺮن ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷـﺪت ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺬﮐﻮر ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﮥ ﻣﻮردي اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷـﺪه و ﻫـﺪف از اﺟـﺮاي آن ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ اﺛﺮﻫﺎي اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ در ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺳﻄﺤﯽ ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ اﺳﺖ . ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮرﺳـﯽ اﯾـﻦ ﻣﻮﺿـﻮع ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ و آﺑﺪﻫﯽ اﻧﺪازه ﮔﯿﺮي ﺷﺪة اﯾﻦ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﻫـﺎ از ﺳـﺎل 1347 ﺗـﺎ 1397 در ﺳـﻪ دور ة آﻣـﺎري از 1347-1377-1347 ،1397، و 1397-1377 ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﺷﺪ. ﺳﺮاﻧﺠﺎم، ﺑﺎ آزﻣﻮن ﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري t اﺳـﺘﯿﻮدﻧﺖ، ﻣـﻦ - وﯾﺘﻨـﯽ ﻣﻦ- ﮐﻨﺪال ﮔﺮاﻓﯿﮑﯽ روﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮﭘﺬﯾﺮي داده ﻫﺎ در ﺳﻄﺢ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن 95درﺻﺪ و 99درﺻﺪ ﺑـﺎ SPSS ﻣﺤﺎﺳـﺒﻪ ﺷـ ﺪ. ﺑـ ﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﻣﻌﻠﻮم ﺷﺪ روﻧﺪ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﻫﻤﮥ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ ﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺑﻮده و ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺟﺮﯾـﺎ ن ﻫـﺎ ي ﺳﻄﺤﯽ ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﯿﺴﺖ ﺳﺎل اﺧﯿﺮ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﭘﻨﺠﺎه ﺳﺎل ﺑﯿﻦ 13- ﺗﺎ 61- درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘـﻪ و آﻣـﺎرة )U(ti ﻫﻤﮥ آن ﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﯽ رﺳﺪ ﻋﻠﺖ آن ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ اﺳﺖ . ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﺜﺎل، آﻣﺎرة )U(ti ﺑﺎرش ﻫﺎ در ﺣﻮﺿﮥ ﮐﺎرون 2,77-، ﻣﺎرون ﺟﺮاﺣﯽ 2,18-، در ﮐﺮﺧﻪ 1,98-، ﻏﺮب اﯾﺮان 1,78-، و ﻗﺮه ﺳـﻮ - ﮔﺮﮔـﺎن 2,70+ اﺳـﺖ . در ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ آن آﻣﺎرة )U(ti آﺑﺪﻫﯽ آن ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 2,87 ،-4,51 ،-3,07 ،-3,35-، و 3,29- اﺳﺖ

Introduction: Climate change as one of the most important environmental hazards around the world has led to the emergence of the worst climatic conditions, such as: heat waves, changes in the temporal and spatial distribution of atmospheric dispersal patterns (heavy rainfalls), prolonged periods of droughts, severe floods, severe storms , Dust particles, etc., and has, in recent years, left unhealthy effects on the hydrological cycle and renewable water sources (IPCC, 2016). According to the IPCC, the global average temperature in 2016 is about 1.3 degrees Celsius more than the recent 100 years because of uprising the greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2017). In Iran, during the period from 1970 to 2004, the average annual temperature ranged from 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (IPCC 2014). Currently, due to rising temperatures and reduced rainfall in recent years, fresh water resources have fallen across the Iranian catchment areas and in some places have led to the drying rivers. In this way, the annual and balance of water supply's with the amount of renewable water has been interacted and has led to increased demand for agricultural, drinking and industrial water in this paper. To query this, 30 watersheds throughout Iran have been selected as a case study with the aiming to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on renewable water sources. Materials and methods: In this case study, using the data of 2113 meteorological and 1116 hydrometric stations of the Ministry of Energy and the Meteorological Organization, the values of the time series of rainfall data and the annual volume flow of all rivers in 30 catchments were selected using Excel software from 1968 to 2018. Subsequently, rainfall and runoff data were classified into three statistical periods of 50, 30 and 20 years (respectively from 1968 to 2018, 1968 to 1997, and 1998 to 2018). Finally, using parametric statistical tests T-test and non-parametric Mann-Whitney and Man-Kendall mutation variability in the time series of these periods, at 95% confidence level and 99% confidence level, SPSS software was evaluated and verified. Results and discussion: In this research, the results of parametric and nonparametric statistical tests to reveal the mutation and verification of the trend in the long-term variations of rainfall data and annual flow volume of all rivers in 30 catchments are presented in Table 1. In this case study.