پديد آورندگان :
حافظي، نگار دانشگاه شهيد چمران اهواز - دانشكده كشاورزي - گروه مهندسي بيوسيستم، اهواز، ايران , شيخ‌داودي، محمدجواد دانشگاه شهيد چمران اهواز - دانشكده كشاورزي - گروه مهندسي بيوسيستم، اهواز، ايران , بهرامي، هوشنگ دانشگاه شهيد چمران اهواز - دانشكده كشاورزي - گروه مهندسي بيوسيستم، اهواز، ايران , علوي ، عنايت‌اله دانشگاه شهيد چمران اهواز - دانشكده مهندسي - گروه مهندسي كامپيوتر، اهواز، ايران
كليدواژه :
نيشكر , پيش‌بيني , هوش مصنوعي , الگوريتم‌هاي فراابتكاري
چكيده فارسي :
متغيرهاي مختلفي بر عملكرد مزارع نيشكر تأثير‌گذارند. با بررسي اين متغيرها و تعيين ميزان اثر هر يك از آنها مي‌توان به راهكارهايي به‌منظور افزايش بهره‌وري مزارع نيشكر دست يافت. امروزه استفاده از يافته‌هاي هوش مصنوعي و داده كاوي براي كمك به پيش‌بيني توليد محصول مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. هدف از اين مقاله، معرفي روش هوشمند سيستم استنتاج فازي- عصبي تطبيقي و تركيب اين تكنيك با الگوريتم بهينه‌سازي ازدحام ذرات به منظور افزايش دقت و سرعت يادگيري سيستم فازي- عصبي در تخمين خصوصيات كمي و كيفي محصول نيشكر است. متغيرهاي مدل شامل مجموعه‌اي از عوامل مديريتي، خصوصيات خاك، آب و اقليمي در منطقه مورد مطالعه است. در ابتدا، براي انتخاب ويژگي‌هاي بهينه از ميان متغيرهاي موجود در مسأله از الگوريتم ژنتيك استفاده شد سپس از يك الگوي اصلي سيستم استنتاج فازي- عصبي تطبيقي و يك الگوي تركيبي شبكه فازي- عصبي با الگوريتم ازدحام ذرات براي پيش‌بيني خصوصيات مورد مطالعه استفاده گرديد. نتايج نشان داد كه الگوي تركيبي شبكه فازي- عصبي و الگوريتم ازدحام ذرات نسبت به الگوي اصلي سيستم فازي- عصبي صرف، به راه‌حل دقيق‌تر و قوي‌تر منجر شده‌است؛ اين مدل به ترتيب با مقادير اعشاري ضريب تعيين، ريشه ميانگين مربعات خطا و ميانگين درصد خطاي مطلق 0/9237، 0/0181 و 0/0217 براي عملكرد نيشكر و نيز 0/9847، 0/0086 و 0/0138 براي درصد شكر استحصالي، توانايي مناسبي در پيش‌بيني و نگاشت غيرخطي ميان متغيرهاي مورد نظر داشته است.
چكيده لاتين :
Introduction Sugarcane is a tropical, perennial grass that forms lateral shoots at the base to produce multiple stems. It is the main source of sugar production and one of the most important sources of energy production in the world. Today, the use of artificial intelligence and data mining findings to help predict product production is considered. Determining the relationship between inputs and outputs of production process using artificial intelligence (AI) has drawn more attention rather than mathematical models to find the relationships between input and output variables by training, and producing results without any prior assumptions. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), as a form of AI, is a combination of artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy systems that uses the learning capability of the ANN to derive the fuzzy if-then rules with appropriate membership functions worked out from the training pairs, which in turn leads to the inference.Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is an algorithm modeled on swarm intelligence, in a search space, or model it finds a solution to an optimization problem and predict social behavior in the presence of objectives. The PSO is a population-based stochastic computer algorithm, modeled on swarm intelligence. Swarm intelligence is based on social psychological principles and it provides insights into social behavior, also helps to many engineering applications. Feature selection is becoming very important in predictive analytics. Indeed, many data sets contain a large number of features, so we have to select the most useful ones. One of the most advanced methods to do that is the genetic algorithm (GA). Genetic algorithms can select the best subset of variables for predictive model. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the applicability of one artificial intelligence technique including adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and also combining this technique with particle swarm optimization to increase the accuracy and speed of training of the neuro-fuzzy system in prediction of yield and recoverable sugar percentage (R.S%) of sugarcane.
Materials and Methods In this paper, one main pattern of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and one synthetic model of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with particle swarm optimization (PSO) were used to predict the studied properties by MATLAB version 2017. Initial data for this study were collected from Debal-Khozaie Agro-industry Company in Khouzestan province, Iran. The actual data for the seven periods of sugarcane harvest from 2010 to 2017 were used for modeling. The studied parameters included a set of agronomic factors, soil characteristics, irrigation and climate in the study area. The test data sets were used for comparison of selected ANFIS and ANFIS with PSO, as well as for the observation values. This comparison was performed by using three statistical indices: Determination Coefficient (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
Results and DiscussionFrom all of the studied parameters, eleven parameters were selected as the effective features by the binary genetic algorithm (BGA). In feature selection, the function to optimize is the generalization performance of a predictive model. More specifically, in this method, purpose was to minimize the error of the model on an independent data set not used to create the model. The data were randomly divided into two groups: training and testing. Each pattern was modeled separately and then the results were compared. The results showed that the combination of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with particle swarm optimization algorithm (ANFIS-PSO) had better performance in predicting cane yield and recoverable sugar percentage. In ANFIS-PSO model the root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and coefficient of determination values were found 0.0181, 0.0217, 0.9237 and 0.0086, 0.0138, 0.9847 respectively for two variables of cane yield and recoverable sugar percentage. In relation to the predicted cane yield by the neuro-fuzzy network with particle swarm algorithm, it can be concluded that among the effective factors, with increasing plant age and use of resistant varieties, the amount of yield was decreased and increased, respectively.
Conclusion The hybrid pattern of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with the particle swarm optimization has been directed against the mere neuro-fuzzy system to a more accurate and stronger solution. Indeed, it can be concluded that ANFIS model with the PSO has the ability for precise estimation of sugarcane yield and recoverable sugar percentage.
