پديد آورندگان :
آرين منش، محمد دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي - دانشكده حقوق علوم سياسي و زبان هاي خارجي - گروه علوم سياسي، مشهد، ايران , جوانشيري، احمد دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي - دانشكده حقوق علوم سياسي و زبان هاي خارجي - گروه روابط بين الملل، مشهد، ايران , مدير شانه چي، محسن دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي - دانشكده حقوق علوم سياسي و زبان هاي خارجي - گروه علوم سياسي، مشهد، ايران
كليدواژه :
آينده پژوهي , ايران , امريكا , پيشران , سناريو
چكيده فارسي :
اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ رواﺑــﻂ اﯾــﺮان و اﻣﺮﯾﮑــﺎ از ﻣﻨﻈــﺮ اﺳــﺎﺗﯿﺪ اﯾﺮاﻧــﯽ و در اﻓــﻖ 1408 اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. روش ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده آﯾﻨﺪه ﭘﮋوﻫﯽ و ﺷﺎﻣﻞ دو ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌــﺎﺗﯽ ﻣــﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺨﺶ اول ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪ اي و ﺑﺨﺶ دوم ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﻮده و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ داده ﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰ ار ﻫ ﺎي ﻣﯿﮏ ﻣﮏ و ﺳــﻨﺎرﯾﻮ وﯾــﺰارد اﻧﺠــﺎم ﺷــﺪه اﺳــﺖ. ﺑــﺮ اﺳــﺎس ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار ﻣﯿﮏ ﻣﮏ، ﺑﯿﺴﺖ ﭘﯿﺸﺮان رواﺑﻂ دو ﮐﺸﻮر ﺷﻨﺎﺳــﺎﯾﯽ ﺷــﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻒ ﮔﺮﻫﺎ ﺣﻮزه ﻧﻬﺎدﻫﺎي ﺣﮑﻮﻣﺘﯽ در ﺻــﺪر و ﺳــﭙﺲ ﮐﺸــﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣــﺰاﺣﻢ رواﺑﻂ، ﻧﻘﺶ رﻫﺒﺮان دو ﮐﺸﻮر، آﯾﻨﺪه ﻧﻈﺎم ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻞ، اﺗﺎق ﻫﺎي ﻓﮑ ﺮ ، ﻻﺑــﯽ ﻫــﺎ و ﮔــﺮوه ﻫــﺎي ﻓﺸﺎر، ﺗﻮاﻧﻤﻨﺪي ﻫﺴﺘﻪ اي و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻣﻮﺷﮑﯽ اﯾﺮان، ﻧﻘﺶ ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿــﺎ و ﺳــﺎﺑﻘﻪ ﺗــﺎرﯾﺨﯽ رواﺑــﻂ دو ﮐﺸﻮر ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﻧﺪ. ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺧﺮوﺟــﯽ ﻧــﺮم اﻓــﺰار ﺳــﻨﺎرﯾﻮ وﯾــﺰارد ﻧﯿــﺰ ﭘــﻨﺞ ﻃﯿــﻒ از ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻣﻄﻠﻮب، ﻣﻄﻠﻮب، ﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ، ﻧﺎﻣﻄﻠﻮب و ﺑﺴــﯿﺎر ﻧــﺎﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﺷﻨﺎﺳــﺎﯾﯽ ﺷــﺪ ﮐــﻪ ﺷﮑﻞ ﮔﯿﺮي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي ﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ در رواﺑﻂ دو ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد .
چكيده لاتين :
The present research was performed to evaluate the Iran-US relationships in 2029 from the Iranian Professors’ point of view. Investigations were perfumed via future studies in two parts: The first part is based on library studies, and the second part is questionnaire-based field surveys, with the acquired data analyzed using MicMac and Scenario Wizard software tools. Based on the results of the analysis in the MicMac software, a total of 20 driver forces for the Iran-US relationships were identified. Considering the driver forces as descriptors of the Iran-US relationships, the most significant driver forces were found to be the government institutions context followed by the relationship-interfering countries, the role of the two countries’ leaders, future of the international system, think tanks, lobbies and pressure groups, nuclear capabilities and missile program of Iran, the role of geography, and historical records of the relationships between the two countries. Based on the outputs of the Scenario Wizard software, five scenarios were identified, including highly favorable, favorable, moderate, unfavorable, and highly unfavorable, with the development of the Iran-US relationships under the moderate scenario being highly probable.
